Catella: Impairment burdens Q4

Catella: Impairment burdens Q4 - ABG

* Q4 EBIT of SEK 11m, way below expectations driven by a SEK 151 impairment
* Underlying Corporate Finance and IM better than expected in Q4
* Negative consensus revisions to follow, stock down today

Q4 EBIT SEK 11m, vs. ABGSC at 101m & consensus at 76m

The Q4’25 EBIT fell y-o-y and came in at SEK 11m (63m), which was 89% below ABGSC and 86% below FactSet consensus. The quarter included some items affecting comparability, including the divestment of Valuation France which contributed SEK 51m to EBIT. This divestment was pre-announced and included in our forecast. Another item affecting comparability was a SEK 151m impairment of an updated property value assessment of KöTower, one of Catella's Principal investments. This was not pre-announced. If adjusting for the impairment, EBITDA was 40% above consensus and 55% above ABGSC in Q4, which we see as positive. Looking at underlying development, both the Corporate Finance and Investment Management segment delivered stronger than expected results in Q4. Catella proposes a DPS of SEK 0.9 (3% yield), which was below ABGSC expectation, which forecasted DPS of SEK 1.7, and also below consensus which expected SEK 1.34.

AUM of SEK 155bn in Q4, 2% below consensus forecast

Net sales in Q4 came in at SEK 465m (979m), which was 5% above ABGSC's forecast but 6% below consensus. Reported EBITDA came in at SEK 36m, 70% below ABGSC and 73% below FactSet consensus. The large deviation is stemming from the SEK 151m impairment of an updated property value assessment of KöTower. The AUM came in at SEK 155.3bn, down 3% q-o-q (SEK -5bn), which was 3% below ABGSC forecast and 2% below consensus. The decrease compared to the end of the third quarter, was primarily driven by FX headwinds (SEK 3bn) and negative net outflow of SEK 1bn. We believe the lower-than-expected AUM base in Q4 will trigger negative consensus earnings revisions for 2026-27e.

Negative consensus revisions to follow, stock down today

We expect consensus to cut their 2026-‘27e EBIT by 5-10% driven by the lower AUM base. Given the earnings miss in Q4, with negative consensus revisions following the report, we expect the share to come down today.

Catella: Impairment burdens Q4 - ABG

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Catella: Impairment burdens Q4 - ABG

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