Catella: Q2 softer than expected, but underlying trends improving - ABG
* Q2 EBIT of SEK 8m, vs. ABGSC of SEK 26m and cons. SEK 15m * AUM of SEK 161bn bang in line, while transaction activity continues to improve * Negative consensus revisions to follow
ANNONS
Q2 EBIT SEK 8, vs. ABGSC at 26m & consensus at 15m
The Q2’26 underlying EBIT improved by SEK 43m y-o-y whe adjusting for one-offs, and came in at SEK 8m, which was 18m below ABGSC and 7m below FactSet consensus. Looking at underlying development, the Investment Management segment delivered weaker than expected results in Q2, while Corporate Finance was more broadly in line.
AUM of SEK 160.8 bn in Q2, bang in line with both ABGSC & consensus forecast
Net sales in Q2 came in at SEK 400m (722m), which was 7% above ABGSC's forecast and 8% above consensus. Reported EBITDA came in at SEK 27m, 19m below both ABGSC and FactSet consensus. The AUM came in at SEK 160.8bn, up 1% q-o-q (SEK 159.8bn), which was bang in line with both ABGSC forecast and consensus. The slight increase of 1bn sequentially is driven by FX tailwind, offsetting both capital outflow and lowered valuations in the underlying portfolios.
Negative cons. revisions to follow
We expect consensus to cut their ‘26e EBIT by ~1-3% mainly reflecting the Q1 and Q2 earnings shortfall in IM, while improving activity and solid AUM should limit revisions to 2027-‘28. Regarding the SEK 100m share buyback program announced in Q1, Catella repurchased 2.5m shares during Q2 for c. SEK 52m, corresponding to 2.95% of total shares outstanding. Call at 10.00.
