Clavister reported sales of SEK 36m (+3% vs. ABGSCe), for y-o-y growth of 17%, while recurring revenue grew 43% y-o-y. Order intake increased 39% y-o-y to SEK 44m, supporting higher future growth rates. The gap between sales and order intake is mainly a result of the company transitioning to a subscription-based revenue model, which implies long-term, rather than a one-time, revenue. We expect that the transition will continue to dampen sales throughout 2022, but that the gap will narrow gradually. Encouragingly, management said that the strong order intake was driven by a broad contribution, i.e., not one-time orders. EBITDA of SEK -11.4m was +1.6m vs. ABGSCe SEK -13.0m.
Initiates cost optimisation programme, target to save SEK 40m
The company initiated a cost savings programme during Q4. Management’s target is to reduce the current opex run-rate by up to 20% (SEK ~40m), with full effects from Q4’22. The programme focuses on managerial and administrative recourses and is thus not expected to have any negative impact on growth going forward. We cut full-year ‘22e opex by 11% as a result, and now forecast ‘22e EBITDA of SEK 13m. After speaking with management, we are confident that the programme is the right move, and an important next step in its restructuring journey that began back in 2017/18 when it recalibrated its strategy. Looking beyond 2022, we think the company is well positioned to reach positive EBIT in 2023. Due to its scalable business model with a +85% gross margin, Clavister will increase its EBIT margin rapidly as most incremental sales will drop through to the bottom line. By 2024, we expect Clavister to generate EBIT of SEK 26m.
13.5x ‘23e EV/EBITDA, -55% vs. peers
The share is now trading at 13.5x ‘23e EBITDA on our new estimates, which is 55% below where other ... Läs mer på Introduce
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