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Crunchfish has announced a 60% guaranteed SEK 85 million rights issue. We estimate this will extend the company’s runway almost another 18-24 months, which would finance operations to scaleup in India. However, the recent launch of NPCI’s NFC-based (in-proximity) payment solution UPI Light X, partly similar to Crunchfish’s Digital Cash Offline, has increased uncertainty in our forecast and the way forward in India. Factoring in the 25% dilution from the rights issue, our model now supports a fair value range of SEK 15-17 per share (SEK 21-29).
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