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Eltel: 2022 a lost year due to external factors - ABG

Sales and adj. EBITA 3% and 84% below ABGSCe ’22e-‘24e adj. EBITA down 44-10% Trading at 32-11x ‘22e-‘24e EV/EBITA A toxic cocktail of cost inflation and lost volumes

Strong organic growth in Sweden (14% y-o-y) and Norway (11%) was offset by a soft Denmark (-29%) and Finland (-10%). Denmark was impacted by the partial insourcing of an contract by a major customer at the end of Q2’21, whereas Finland was hurt by a cold start to Q2 and strike among personnel. Besides the significant volume loss in Denmark, cost inflation continued to weigh on profitability, with the adj. EBITA margin down 1.9pp y-o-y, to 0.2% (vs. ABGSCe 1.4%). Although not quantified, the margin in Finland was partly boosted by the closing of some projects, an event isolated to Q2. All in all, sales were EUR 209m, -1% y-o-y and 3% below ABGSCe. Due to the soft margin, adj. EBITA of EUR 0.5m was 84% below our expectations. The Polish High Voltage business is still under strategic review, and a divestment does not seem likely near-term given its challenges. We expect the incoming CEO, Håkan Dahlström, (starting 1 August) will provide more detail on the subject.

Profitability improvement trajectory lowered, again Management says it has secured agreements with most of its customers in Sweden, Finland, and Denmark to recover parts of the cost increases, and it expects improvements will be visible entering ’23. After Q2, Eltel signed an agreement with GlobalConnect in Denmark, which will generate sales of EUR 47m over the next 3.5 years, something that will also support the margin improvement in Denmark. All in all, given the estimate miss and delay in price increases until ‘23, we lower ‘22e, ‘23e and ‘24e adj. EBITA by 44%, 17% and 10%, respectively. However, due to the GlobalConnect contract, we raise our sales estimates by 1-2% for the same period.

Share down 45% YTD, in line with estimate revisions The share is down 45% YTD and our ‘23e adj. EBITA estimates are down 42% in the same period. The sh ... Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier
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