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Midsona: A perfect storm - ABG

The report came in below our expectations
A perfect storm on all fronts
We lower our EBIT estimates by ~10% for ’21e-’23e

Q3 was expected to be a quarter with easy comps, with organic growth (in combination with synergies) leading to a significant margin expansion. The company instead came in 10% below our sales expectations (8% vs. FactSet cons) with a top line of SEK 893m. This led to an EBITDA miss of 20% vs. our expectations and -27% vs. cons. Midsona is experiencing headwinds on most fronts. The company has, like many others, been affected by supply chain shortages. Moreover, Midsona has fallen victim to several unfortunate harvests. These factors have limited its ability to meet demand, which has also been lower due to negative reopening effects. With some sales channels such as health food stores often being located in cities, volumes have been hurt significantly as traffic has shifted toward restaurants. Although some of these problems were known beforehand, we still expected a stronger delivery. On the back of the Q3 report, we lower our sales and adj. EBIT for ’22e-’23e by 5% and 10%, respectively.

On our updated estimates, the share is trading at an adj. EV/EBITA ’21e-’23e of 21x-15x, c. 5-10% below peers on ’22e-’23e.
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