Netum specified its guidance for 2021 on January 24th, with the revisions appearing to be rather small in relation to our expectations. The company now expects revenue for FY 2021 to amount to slightly over EUR 22m, having previously expected EUR 20-22m. The comparable EBITA is expected to be EUR 3.1m (prev. EUR 3.1m-3.5m). The revised revenue forecast is due to the integration of Cerion Solutions (as of 1.10.2021) and stronger than expected organic growth. Netum’s profitability has been affected by new recruitments, with around 90 new employees during 2021 (12/2020: 130 employees), along with weaker margins in a single fixed-price customer project.
Solid growth prospects
We noted in conjunction with the Cerion Solutions acquisition, that the revenue guidance being kept intact despite the expected EUR 1m positive impact on 2021 revenue was somewhat surprising. Fortunately, with the revised guidance the concerns of implied slower growth are clearly reduced. The comparable EBITA was somewhat below our previous EUR 3.4m expectations, with the project challenges not accounted for. Considering the challenging recruiting environment, the rapid growth in personnel is commendable and sets the foundation for continued strong growth, and we expect a growth of 22% in 2022. We see some need for caution in profitability improvement expectations due to the rapid growth and for now expect similar unadj. margins as in 2021.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 4.3 (4.6)
The guidance revision was overall slightly positive news, should the noted project challenges not impact further. However, with the recent market turbulence and peer multiple depreciation we adjust our target price to EUR 4.3 (prev. EUR 4.6) and retain our HOLD-rating, valuing Netum at approx. 16x 2022e adj. P/E.
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