Similar to recent quarters and as suggested by comments from peers and competitors, the ESL market was strong in Q4. Pricer increased orders 43% y-o-y to SEK 648m, +6% vs. ABGSCe SEK 608m. It is encouraging to see that both sales and orders continue to improve well. Pricer announced one framework agreement in Q4, relating to a Norwegian DIY chain for a value of up to SEK 45m. The gross margin of 15.5% contracted from Q3 at 16.6% (ABGSCe 16.5%), which we believe stemmed from an unfavourable product mix and further pressure from elevated input costs. EBIT of SEK 28m improved from SEK 17m in Q4'21. However, we note that profits also included "other operating revenues" of SEK 24m, mainly relating to revaluation due to FX, i.e. a low-quality beat versus forecasts. In terms of outlook, Pricer continues to see a strong momentum; both operationally and market-wise.
Valuation and estimate changes
Pricer's share is +12% YTD and down 22% over the past year. On our unrevised estimates, it is trading att 22x '23e EV/EBIT and 1.0x EV/sales. Based on the Q4 results alone, we expect consensus to raise sales forecasts, but cut '23e-'24e EBIT ~10% on lower gross margin assumptions. There is a conference call at 14.00 CET, https://financialhearings.com/event/44335
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