Probi: Cautious outlook in Americas - ABG

Sales stabilising and EBITDA 7% above ABGSCe… … but macroeconomic environment could hurt demand ‘23e EBITDA down 2%, NTM EV/EBITA 20x Stabilising sales but cautious outlook
Probi delivered organic growth of -1% in Q2 (ABGSCe 0%), as the Americas region (70% of sales) stabilised the negative trend we have seen in the previous four quarters. However, management’s outlook for the US was cautious, highlighting initial indications of a slowdown, as the ongoing macroeconomic environment may dampen demand. EMEA was solid (11% y-o-y excl. milestone in Q2’21) and while APAC was a bit on the weaker side (3% y-o-y), these regions remain too small to materially impact the performance of the group. The EMEA figure should be viewed in light of Probi highlighting that the Perrigo rollout is slower than expected, and that the geopolitical situation has led the Oriflame launch in Russia and Ukraine to be delayed (other markets remain on target). The GM was somewhat lower on mix effects (45% vs. ABGSCe 47%), but this was offset by lower cash opex for an EBITDA margin of 26.3% (ABGSCe 24.2%), with EBITDA 7% above our expectations.