* We expect 13% organic growth in Q2 * Q2 revenues adversely impacted by lower user growth in Q1 * FVR of SEK 25-40 reiterated
ANNONS
Q2 expectations
Skolon reports its Q2 results on 21 August. We expect sales of SEK 62m, corresponding to organic growth of 13% y-o-y. Growth is expected to be affected by contract timing, with some contracts likely to contribute from Q3 rather than in the current quarter (aside from tough growth comps of 40% y-o-y in Q2'25). In the UK, Skolon signed three larger school groups in Q2, comprising around 60 schools in total. In the UK, customers tend to add tools after platform adoption so we expect UK tools revenue to build more gradually, and see this as a tailwind for Skolon; this market could become an important growth pillar. We estimate gross margins of 27% (24% less capitalised work), broadly flat y-o-y. For paying users, we estimate 1,073k at end-Q2'26e (Q1'26 1,038k) and ARPPU of SEK 197 (Q1'26 SEK 196), continuing the steady sequential increase in monetisation per user.
Estimates reflect somewhat more partner revenue
We cut our sales estimate by 5% for '26, as we now expect revenue to materialise in Q3 rather than this quarter. Consequently, we reduce '26e EBITDA from SEK 15m to SEK 9m given the delayed revenue recognition and as we believe more of the growth will originate from partner revenues.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, Skolon is trading at 6x/4x '26e/'27e EV/Gross profit (GP less capitalised work). We maintain our fair value range of SEK 25-40. We continue to expect Skolon to grow gross profit meaningfully faster than the peer group, driven by continued user growth in Norway, the UK and Germany alongside rising ARPPU as customers increase their purchases of tools on top of the platform over time. Skolon has also launched its AI Studio, an agentic coding feature that lets partners and customers build on Skolon's content library, which we see as a further driver of take rates over time.
