Midsona: Entering 2025 with a slimmed offering - ABG
Bildkälla: Stockfoto

Midsona: Entering 2025 with a slimmed offering - ABG

Minor estimate changes
Contract cancellations to carry negative impact on Q4
Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of ~8x


What to expect in Q4'24e

We anticipate a 3% y-o-y organic decline in Q4'24, implying sales of SEK 964m and EBIT of SEK 32m, or a margin of 3.3%. The organic decline is due to cancellations that impact products related to the Christmas season. The governing metrics for Midsona's SKU reduction efforts (i.e., contract cancellations and product discontinuations) have been margins and capital intensity, both of which relate to ROIC optimisation. We believe that more SKU reductions are value-accretive despite near-term growth headwinds, such as those we anticipate in Q4'24. Operating cash flow should be slightly positive, to the tune of SEK 6m, as Midsona should release some capital due to seasonality.
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