Still waiting for the market to kickoff
We expect Q4 to be stronger than Q3 in terms of organic growth (+3% vs. +1% in Q3), due to the mild winter and the beginning of market improvements in Land and Construction (+2%). Given the seasonality, we expect fairly strong sales of SEK 635m, +3% y-o-y. Although the market is still challenging, with fewer projects and price pressure, Infrea announced one project in Q4 (SEK 200m over four years). We forecast adj. EBITA of SEK 28m, +13% y-o-y, with a margin of 4.4% (4,0% Q4'23) as we believe the market has started to brighten up a bit and the internal focus continues. Finally, we forecast FCF in Q4'24 to be in line with Q4'23 (SEK 78m) at SEK 73m, ~87% of adj. EBITA.
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