Q1'25e expectations
We expect Medicover to continue on its growth trajectory into 2025, driven by strength in both segments. In HS, we expect both price and volume growth in all regions, with Poland and Romania continuing to compare favourably, and we forecast organic growth of 13%. The expected upswing in India may be delayed, as consumer confidence looks soft in Q1. Following incremental improvements in recently opened hospitals and scale, we forecast an EBITDAaL margin improvement of 1.7pp to 9.3% in Q1. For DS, we expect organic growth of 15%, driven by strong overall growth with both volume and price support, with Germany continuing to perform relatively well. As volumes grow, we believe operating leverage should support margins, and we forecast an EBITDAaL margin of 14.2% in DS. At the group level, we expect Medicover to deliver sales of EUR 567m, driven by 14% organic growth, with EBITDAaL of EUR 51m and adj. EBITDA of EUR 84m, giving a margin of 14.9%.
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