Positive organic growth in Q1 and acceleration Q2-Q4e Estimates cut on divestments; underlying more stable We raise our FVR to SEK 8-20 (7-19); trading at 12-8x EBITA
ANNONS
Services grew but Flow Tech. missed
Q1 was marked by a return to positive organic growth (2% y-o-y, 3% vs. restated numbers) driven by the service-oriented units in Solutions (+6% ABGSCe), while our assessment is that organic growth in Flow Technology was -4% and +1% in Niche Products. Management confirmed that both installation and infrastructure services turned to positive growth, noting that it thinks the positive trend will be maintained, which is encouraging. The recent divestments of Markax and Rosenqvist were excluded from the Q1 numbers, which explained the miss vs. consensus. Excluding this effect, both Solutions and Niched products were in line with our expectations while Flow Tech. was a bit weaker (EBITA -16% vs. ABGSCe). We therefore cut organic EBITA in Flow Tech. by ~7% '26e-'27e while the acquisition of Nortech adds ~15%, leading to +8% in total for the segment, or ~3% on the group level. Removing the divestments leads to a net revision on '26e-'27e EBITA of -8-6% — a greater effect than what the LTM numbers imply (~SEK 25m EBITA), as we forecasted a margin recovery in the units.
