* H1'26e adj. EBIT NOK 46m
* Two accretive acquisitions
* Fair value range of NOK 18-25
ANNONS
H1'26e adj. EBIT NOK 46m
We pencil in H1'26e revenues of NOK 265m, up 13% y-o-y. This implies AY'25/26e revenues of NOK 536m, +13% y-o-y. We have fine-tuned our revenue estimates, and we see AY'25/'26e revenues of NOK 198m for Sonans and NOK 325m for ONH, implying NOK 525m ex. M&A, compared to Lumi's guidance of NOK 524m. We pencil in adj. EBIT of NOK 99m for AY'25/'26e, which implies NOK 46m for H1'26. Regarding margins, we see a group adj. EBIT margin at 17.4% for H1'26 and 18% for the academic full year. The company has strong revenue visibility, with ~90% of its revenues the following year locked in during autumn. For the full year '26e, we see group revenues of NOK 593m and adj. EBIT of NOK 118m, which implies Sonans and ONH revenues up 6% and 10% y-o-y.
Two accretive acquisitions
Lumi has added two bolt-ons since December: EnkelEksamen (Edrupt, NOK 40m revenue, NOK 10.5m adj. EBIT), and Bjørknes, signed in May at just 4.6x '25 EV/EBIT (EV NOK 37m, adj. EBIT NOK 8m), closing in Q3'26e. We lift our '27e-'28e estimates to reflect Bjørknes' EBIT base, but we have been careful about factoring in the expected synergies as this normally takes time to materialise. The two acquisitions have been accretive to Lumi's multiples, and the positive outcome from these more than offsets NOKUT's 29 April decision not to grant ONH institutional accreditation, a process management has consistently said its shorter-term ambitions do not depend on.
Fair value range of NOK 18-25
A peer valuation on '26e-'28e multiples points to NOK 16-21/sh, narrowing to NOK 20-21 looking at '27e-'28e only. Lumi trades at '27e/'28e EV/EBIT of ~10.4x/8.7x and a P/E of ~11.9x/10.7x. Given Lumi's solid position in the Norwegian market, we argue a premium could be justified, and keep our valuation range unchanged, implying '27e EV/EBIT of 10x-12.5x.
