Finnair upgraded guidance, according to which it will near or even exceed the FY ‘19 adj. EBIT level of EUR 163m this year. Finnair did EUR 3,098m in FY ’19 revenue, but is still likely to remain a bit shy of that figure this year. We don’t view the upgrade a big surprise (although it arrived early) as Finnair has reached positive EBIT since Q3’22, and Q1’23 results were also strong considering seasonality. The revision was driven by the extension of factors which helped it reach its break-even Q1’23 EBIT, in other words continued high demand, moderating fuel prices and strategy execution. We previously estimated Finnair to reach EUR 127m EBIT this year, whereas our new estimate is EUR 160m. We make minor revisions to our top line estimates but update our FY ’24 EBIT estimate to EUR 199m (prev. EUR 186m).
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