Fiskars: We are ahead of consensus for Q2E – focus on demand outlook - Nordea

Ahead of the Fiskars Q2, due on 18 July, we maintain our estimates intact. We do not expect any material demand improvement in Q2, while we note first positive signs of demand recovery in the Nordics, especially in Sweden. We believe the company continues to benefit from its two cost saving programmes, launched in 2023, while wage inflation and lower volumes are partly offsetting the positive impact. We note the company should start to benefit from lower raw material costs when own production volumes pick-up, supporting especially Vita business area which has higher share of own production (around two-thirds). For Q2, there is some uncertainty related to timing of the back-to-school deliveries in US which could affect Fiskars business area performance. We model Q2E sales to be up 12% y/y, driven by Georg Jensen acquisition. We expect LFL growth to be flat y/y after -6% in Q1. We forecast EUR 22.8m adjusted EBIT for Q2E, virtually flat y/y and 15% above LSEG consensus expectations. We note the company is guiding for slightly higher adjusted EBIT compared to EUR 110m in 2023. We model EUR 120m adjusted EBIT in 2024E (+9% y/y) with expected pick-up in adjusted EBIT during H2, partly driven by acquisition of Georg Jensen (October 2023) with clearly H2 tilted profitability profile. We believe the focus in Q2 report to be in comments around H2 demand outlook where we expect gradual recovery and continued growth in China, partly driven by own sales channel actions after the acquisition of Georg Jensen.