Our earnings bridge
We expect Q1 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 15m, down from PLN 30m in Q4'24. The main effects q-o-q are likely: PLN -36m from lower paper prices, PLN +15m from better volumes and PLN +6m from higher pulp prices. Pulp EBIT will likely be ~PLN 7m lower q-o-q, driven by the continued rise in the prices of wood raw materials, negative market development on CTMP pulp (price/volume), and the weaker USD/SEK.Hence, we expect Q1 group EBIT of ~PLN -7m vs. PLN 11m in Q4'24. Q2 will likely be somewhat stronger than Q1 on by increased pulp and paper prices, which points to EBIT of PLN 20-30m.
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