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4/17/2024 5:31:48 AM - NoHo Partners: Solid expectations ahead of setting new targets - Nordea - Ahead of NoHo Partners' Q1 report, we leave our estimates largely intact. While the domestic market was muted during Q1 owing to weak consumer purchasing power, the international operations are developing well. Moreover, we believe NoHo's concepts outperform the market even in a softer environment. As the previous financial targets will be reached ahead of time, we expect NoHo to update its strategy and financial targets at its capital markets day on 22 May. Our DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range is adjusted to EUR 9.7-12.4 (9.7-12.3). Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
3/20/2024 7:56:45 AM - NoHo Partners: CEO to leave the company by the end of August - Nordea - To be entitled to profit sharing for 2023 you can not be a part of any variable pay program, you must have worked at least 25% during 2023 and you must have been employed on December 31, 2023. Then you get profit shares in relation to your worked time during 2023. Those employees who are eligible for profit sharing will get information about their working time in Benify on April 3. During summer (last year it was in June) PRI will send an e-mail to inform about the profit shares to eligible employees and they will then be able to login to PRI with Bank-ID and see their profit shares.
2/16/2024 6:35:14 AM - NoHo Partners: Guidance points towards another year of growth - Nordea - NoHo Partners' Q4 2023 EBIT fell 5% short of Vara Research consensus but grew by 25% y/y, with sales up by 22%. More importantly, despite the gloomy outlook for the Finnish economy in H1 2024, NoHo guides for sales of approximately EUR 430m with an EBIT margin of around 9.5%, indicating growth of 15%. Leverage is now at the company's target of 3.0x, and we believe it will continue with its M&A agenda later this year as deleveraging continues. NoHo will host a CMD in May, at which time we expect it to release new financial targets and strategy. We expect to see another strong year for the company and we derive a DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range of EUR 9.7-12.3 (11.7-14.7) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
2/15/2024 7:41:29 AM - NoHo Partners: Solid Q4 results largely in line with expectations, 2024 outlook suggest 15% growth - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 10.6m, -5% versus Vara consensus and -6% versus our estimate. Q4 net sales were up 22% y/y at EUR 107m, in line with consensus and our estimates. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR 13.5m in Q4 (EUR 11.5m a year ago). Finland profitability came 7% below our expectations and International 4% below. The company recorded the expected EUR 2.7m negative fair value change due to Eezy shareholding to its financing costs, while EUR 1.2m will be recorded in 2024. Adjusted EPS was EUR 0.28. Leverage (net debt/operational EBITDA ex-IFRS 16) was 3.0x and decreased due to the completion of the Eezy divestment. The strong profitability development (EBIT +25% y/y) was mainly thanks to the Holy Cow! business, where integration is progressing well with KPIs developing above NoHo’s expectations. In CEO comments, the company notes that the weak outlook of the Finnish economy and consumer purchasing power creates uncertainty especially during H1, but a positive development of the restaurant market continues. A new guidance for 2024 was introduced; NoHo expects around EUR 430m sales and around 9.5% EBIT margin from restaurant business, implying a 15% sales growth and slight pressure on EBIT. Pre-Q4 Vara consensus has expected EUR 438m sales and an 9.7% EBIT margin in 2024. We expect consensus to slightly trim the top-line and EBIT estimates for 2024, while we expect 2025 estimates to remain largely intact.
1/30/2024 6:22:20 AM - NoHo Partners: Focus shifting towards new targets - Nordea - Ahead of NoHo's Q4 report, due on 15 February, we adjust our estimates to reflect the guidance update released on 20 December. Otherwise, our expectations are unchanged. We model 2023 net sales of EUR 372m, with an EBIT margin of 9.8%. We believe NoHo's 2024 will be characterised by M&A, with the aim of growing market share in Norway. The company will update its strategy and financial targets during H1, as it will reach the previous targets ahead of time, in our view, and we believe it will accelerate its growth ambitions. Our DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range is trimmed to EUR 11.7-14.7 (12.0-15.0) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
1/15/2024 8:07:40 AM - NoHo Partners: Sold its 20% stake in Eezy - Nordea - NoHo Partners has sold its remaining stake (5.05m shares, 20.2%) in Eezy Plc on Friday, 12 January. The weighted average price for the transaction was EUR 1.425 per share, implying that a financial cost of EUR 1.2m will be booked for Q1 2024. In addition, we calculate, based on the fair value change of Eezy share price, that a financial cost of EUR 2.7m will be booked for Q4 2023. This would imply a EUR ~0.09 (-24%) negative revisions on post-Q3 Vara consensus EPS for Q4 (consensus currently models EUR -0.04 impact on EPS related to Eezy), and EUR ~0.01 for 2024. However, the cash flow impact from the transaction will be positive (EUR ~7m).
12/20/2023 1:40:20 PM - NoHo Partners: Updated guidance for 2023 - Nordea - NoHo Partners updates its guidance for 2023. The company now expects its EBIT margin to be above 9.5% (previous guidance: approximately 9%), while the adjusted EBIT margin will be above the current long-term target of 10%. Revenue is expected to be approximately EUR 370m (previously 380m). We view this update as a signal of solid profitability in a challenging consumer demand environment. We note that the guidance update has been anticipated (Vara consensus: 9.8% EBIT margin and EUR 380m revenue for 2023E), and thus the consensus estimate revisions are likely to be muted. NoHo aims to release its new strategy and financial targets for the strategy period of 2024-26 during H1 2024.
11/24/2023 5:57:42 AM - Nasdaq gör några förändringar i OMX Helsinki Benchmark index - Nasdaq har genomfört den halvårsvisa översynen av OMX Helsinki Benchmark index. Förändringarna får effekt vid börsens öppning fredag 1 december. Det framgår av ett pressmeddelande.
11/8/2023 6:13:17 AM - NoHo Partners: Solid performance in a stable market - Nordea - NoHo's Q3 EBIT of EUR 8.7m was in line with our estimate but 5% short of Vara consensus expectations. Net sales increased by 12% y/y in Q3, supported by acquisitions. The rainy end to the summer affected sales growth negatively, especially within entertainment venues. The company kept its guidance intact, while we continue to see a possible guidance upgrade in December. The company expects the solid demand situation to continue in Q4, which likely supports deleveraging following the Better Burger Society transaction. Our DCF- and multiples-based fair value range is EUR 12.0-15.0 (12.4-15.5). Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
11/7/2023 7:09:00 AM - NoHo Partners: Slight EBIT miss likely driven by rainy weather in Q3 – profitability remained above targeted level - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q3 EBIT of EUR 8.7m, -5% versus Vara consensus and +1% versus our estimate. Q3 net sales were up 12% at EUR 96m, 3% below consensus and 2% below our estimates. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR 10.6m in Q3 (EUR 10.7m a year ago). When adjusting for EUR 1.5m impact from Better Burger Society transaction costs, operational EBITDA came 3% below our estimate. Finland profitability came slightly below our expectations, while International beat our expectation. Deviation to our estimates in Finland is likely due to rainy weather late in the summer that affected high season of terrace sales. The company recorder EUR 3.6m negative fair value change due to Eezy shareholding to its financing costs (we anticipated EUR -2.4m). Adjusted EPS was EUR 0.18 while consensus was expecting EUR 0.15. Leverage (net debt/operational EBITDA ex-IFRS 16) was 3.3x and was increased due to the acquisition of Holy Cow!. October sales were up 19% y/y to EUR 31.7m while we have anticipated 27% y/y growth in Q4, mainly driven by acquisitions. Holy Cow! integration is progressing well with KPIs developing above NoHo’s expectations. In CEO comments, the company notes that underlying restaurant demand has remained stable. The guidance was kept intact for 2023; NoHo expects around EUR 380m sales and around 9% EBIT margin from restaurant business. Pre-Q3 Vara consensus has expected EUR 379m sales and an 9.8% EBIT margin in 2023. We expect consensus to trim slightly top line and EBIT estimates for 2023E, while we expect 2024-25 estimates to remain largely intact.
10/17/2023 5:21:42 AM - NoHo Partners: M&A activity likely to continue - Nordea - Ahead of NoHo's Q3 report, we incorporate its latest acquisitions into our estimates. The current financial targets were set in 2021 and are likely to be reached ahead of the strategy cycle ending in 2024. We believe NoHo will continue with M&A in order to reach a market-leading position in Northern Europe. The market development in its operating countries has been solid, despite high inflation having had a slightly negative impact on volumes. We see room for a further guidance upgrade in December, while investor focus has likely turned to the new strategy period and financial targets. Our DCF- and multiples-based fair value range is EUR 12.4-15.5 (12.3-15.4). Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
9/25/2023 9:51:40 AM - NoHo: Acquires three restaurants in Norway - Nordea - NoHo acquires three restaurant in Oslo, Norway. Aggregated purchase price for all businesses is EUR 4.9m, of which approximately EUR 2m is paid in cash and EUR 1.4m remains as an interest bearing debt which shall be paid after six years. The rest of the purchase price is paid with new shares (169k with EUR 8.75 subscription price). We view acquisition to be in line with NoHo strategy and the company has noted its willingness to increase its Norwegian exposure through acquisitions. Based on earlier transactions, we believe EV/EBITDA multiple of the transaction to be between 4-5x which could indicate above EUR 10m positive top line (~2% of 2024E sales) and above EUR 1m positive EBITDA (~2% of 2024 operational EBITDA) impact on group level. In addition, NoHo is likely benefiting from rolling in its sourcing deals, which have traditionally lowered realized acquisition multiples by 1-2x. NoHo will report its Q3 on 7 November. We are 2% below post-Q2 Vara consensus on top line and 10% below on reported EBIT. However, we note our assumption of EUR 2m non-recurring costs related to incorporation of Better Burger Society and the acquisition of Holy Cow!, while we do not know how much of this is taken into consideration in consensus estimate. For 2024E-25E, we are 6-7% above consensus on EBIT.
8/9/2023 6:24:33 AM - NoHo Partners: In good shape for international expansion - Nordea - NoHo reported Q2 EBIT 13% above Vara consensus, despite 4% lower sales. Operations in Finland are performing strongly, and the company improved its International operations despite the growth phase. Customer visits were down from the y/y comparison period when there was a lot of pent-up demand, while price increases, new openings and M&A supported growth.
8/8/2023 6:28:45 AM - Flash comment: NoHo Partners – A solid Q2 with strong profitability in Finland - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q2 EBIT of EUR 10.7m, +13% versus Vara consensus and +9% versus our estimate. Q2 net sales were EUR 93.3m, 4% below consensus and our estimates. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR 12.6m in Q2 (EUR 18.3m a year ago, including EUR 4.8m government grants), 9% above our estimate.
7/26/2023 5:10:22 AM - NoHo Partners: Shifting into a higher gear through M&A - Nordea - Ahead of NoHo's Q2 report, we incorporate the announced acquisition of Holy Cow! to our estimates. The acquisition will be done through a new company, where NoHo will have a majority stake, while PE investor and executive management will hold roughly a 47% stake. Given the ownership structure, we believe NoHo is targeting fast ramp-up in the European premium burger market. When considering the short-term outlook, it appears that the Nordic restaurant market has remained solid, and we believe the company could further upgrade its guidance later in the year. We derive a fair value range of EUR 12.3-15.4 (12.0-15.1) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
7/6/2023 11:56:10 AM - NoHo Partners: Expansion to Switzerland through acquisition and a positive profit warning - Nordea - NoHo Partners announced today acquisition of Swiss premium burger chain Holy Cow! with 2023E EV/operational EBITDA multiple of ~5.3x. Transaction is expected to be completed during Q3 2023 with around EUR 2m one-off transaction costs. Acquisition will be made through a new company, Better Burger Society (where NoHo will have 53% ownership), which will acquire 76% ownership in Holy Cow! with EUR 24m. As a result, the company updates its guidance and now expects around EUR 380m sales (from previously above EUR 350m) and approximately 9% EBIT margin (intact). NoHo expects Holy Cow! to have around EUR 40m sales and around EUR 6m operational EBITDA in 2023. In 2022, Holy Cow! had CHF 38.8m sales and CHF 2.2m EBIT (roughly 5.7% EBIT margin) and it has 16 restaurants with intention to open several new units during the coming 12-months. Given slightly lower EBIT margin in Holy Cow!, it appears that NoHo’s underlying business has developed above earlier guidance. We however note that this has been well expected by post-Q1 Vara consensus modelling EUR 370m sales and 9.5% EBIT margin in 2023E.
5/24/2023 5:05:17 AM - Nasdaq gör några förändringar i OMX Helsinki Benchmark index - Nasdaq har genomfört den halvårsvisa översynen av OMX Helsinki Benchmark index. Förändringarna får effekt vid börsens öppning torsdagen 1 juni. Det framgår av ett pressmeddelande.
5/10/2023 5:41:50 AM - NoHo Partners: Low seasons no longer exist - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported a strong Q1 with EBIT of EUR 5.9m, well above Refinitiv consensus of EUR 4.3m. We note the healthy EBIT margin of 7.8%, which was well above the pre-COVID-19 level in the seasonally weakest quarter. Improved portfolio quality, combined with a flexible business model and improving sourcing power, has clearly smoothed out the variation between quarters, we believe. Lower leverage allows for more active M&A execution going forward, and NoHo has seen a clear pickup in the availability of acquisition targets. The company keeps its guidance intact for now, but we expect a guidance increase later in 2023. We derive a DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range of EUR 12.0-15.1 (11.4-14.3). Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
5/9/2023 6:19:22 AM - NoHo Partners: Strong start both in Finland and International – moving into next phase with its growth strategy - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q1 EBIT of EUR 5.9m, +36% versus Refinitiv consensus and +47% versus our estimate. Q1 net sales were EUR 75.9m, 6% above consensus and our estimates. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR 8.1m in Q1 (EUR 1.1m a year ago), 42% above our estimate. Both Finland and International profitability came above our expectations. Positive development is due to structural changes in NoHo’s portfolio, flexible business model and scale benefits from central purchases. The company recorder EUR 0.6m positive fair value change due to Eezy shareholding to its financing costs (likely not fully visible in consensus). Leverage (net debt/operational EBITDA ex-IFRS 16) was 2.4x, within the company target of below 3x. NoHo notes that it is moving into next phase of fully implementing growth driven by acquisitions. The guidance was kept intact for 2023 with cautiously optimistic outlook; NoHo expects above EUR 350m sales and around 9% EBIT margin from restaurant business. Refinitiv consensus has expected EUR 365m sales and an 9.1% EBIT margin in 2023. Long-term targets are kept intact and the company targets EUR 400m sales and EUR 40m EBIT in 2024. The company is getting ready to define targets for the next strategy period. We expect consensus to make positive revisions in the range of 3-5% on the back of Q1 results and view guidance raise possible later this year.
5/3/2023 5:43:39 AM - NoHo Partners: Restaurant volumes have held well - Nordea - Ahead of NoHo Partners' Q1 report due on 9 May, we make only minor estimate revisions and note solid restaurant market demand. NoHo has continued with an active M&A agenda, and we see further potential for market consolidation following COVID-19-induced challenges among smaller restaurant units. Overall, market demand has remained favourable in Q1 and beyond. NoHo's January sales were EUR 22.7m, up 23% from January 2020. Based on Nordea card data, the Finnish restaurant market growth averaged ~40% y/y in Q1 and 24% compared to Q1 2019. We derive a DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range of EUR 11.4-14.3 (11.2-14.1). Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
3/28/2023 5:35:41 AM - NoHo Partners: Market consolidation continues - Nordea - NoHo Partners announced that it will acquire three well-known nightclubs in the Helsinki downtown area, making it the market leader in Finland's largest entertainment market, with around EUR 25m in annual sales. NoHo's ownership in subsidiary-owning restaurants is 60%. Overall, market demand has remained favourable in Q1. NoHo's January sales were EUR 22.7m, up 23% from January 2020. Based on Nordea card data, the Finnish restaurant market growth was ~16% in February compared to February 2020. Owing to the solid market demand and normalising debt levels, we expect further bolt-on acquisitions and find the company's 2024 targets reachable. We derive a DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range of EUR 11.2-14.1 (10.8-13.6). Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
3/27/2023 6:55:13 AM - NoHo Partners: Becomes market leader in the Helsinki entertainment and nightclub market through acquisition - Nordea - NoHo Partners has signed an agreement in which ownership of three nightclubs in Helsinki downtown will be transferred under the ownership of group’s subsidiary. After the transaction, NoHo will hold 60% stake in the subsidiary (Stadin Night Oy). According to the company, following the acquisition, it becomes market leader in the Helsinki entertainment and nightclub market with around EUR 25m annual sales. Historically, NoHo’s market share has been smaller in Helsinki entertainment and nightclub market when compared to other student cities. Transaction price or top line impact is not disclosed, while we believe three nightclubs (Apollo Live Club, Maxine and Kaivohuone) to command around EUR 10m annual sales as a combined entity. Good to note that nightclubs have traditionally been the most profitable restaurant type. We believe that 2024 targets (EUR 400m net sales with 10% EBIT margin) start to look more achievable through the transaction. We have modelled EUR 378m sales with 10% EBIT margin for 2024E.
3/16/2023 12:58:50 PM - NoHo Partners: Restaurant sales performing well across the Nordics - Nordea - Nordea released Finnish card spending data until end of February today. We note continued good performance of restaurant market. Volumes have remained slightly above 2020 levels during January-February, while inflation is clearly supporting nominal sales growth. NoHo’s sales were up 23% in January when comparing to pre-COVID January 2020. Based on Nordea card data, Finnish restaurant market nominal growth was ~21% in January and ~16% in February when compared to 2020 levels. We note that January-February are traditionally the weakest months of the year and given the good restaurant demand across the Nordics, we view our estimates somewhat cautious both for Q1E and 2023E. We have modelled EUR 67.9m sales with EUR 2.8m EBIT in Q1E, while Refinitiv consensus is expecting EUR 70m sales and EUR 4m EBIT. For 2023E, we are 1% below consensus on sales and EBIT. We have a fair value range of EUR 10.8-13.6 per NoHo share.
2/17/2023 7:46:11 AM - NoHo Partners: Market has remained favourable - Nordea - NoHo reported Q4 EBIT 2% above Refinitiv consensus. More importantly, the company guided for more than EUR 350m in sales with a ~9% EBIT margin for 2023, indicating at least 12% sales growth. January sales came in 23% above the pre-pandemic level, while H2 growth will be supported by the new main supplier agreement for Helsinki Expo and Convention Centre. Market demand seems to be holding up well. Leverage is now within the company's target, while debt repayments will ease in 2023, allowing for growth investments. We expect the company to reduce leverage below 2.5x this year. Its financial targets for 2024 appear achievable, although they will require M&A, most likely in Denmark and Norway. We derive a fair value range of EUR 10.8-13.6 (10.0-12.5) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
2/16/2023 9:53:08 AM - NoHo Partners: A solid Q4 – DPS proposal above expectations – January sales up 23% from January 2020 - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 8.5m, +2% versus Refinitiv consensus and +9% versus Nordea. Q4 net sales were EUR 88.1m in line with consensus. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR 11.5m in Q4 (EUR 9.8m a year ago). The company recorder EUR 2.9m negative fair value change due to Eezy shareholding to its financing costs (not fully visible in consensus). Dividend proposal stands at EUR 0.40 (consensus EUR 0.20). Leverage (net debt/operational EBITDA ex-IFRS 16) was 2.9x, within the company target of below 3x at the end of 2022.The guidance for 2023 expects above EUR 350m sales and around 9% EBIT margin from restaurant business. Refinitiv consensus has expected EUR 344m sales and an 8.7% EBIT margin in 2023. According to the company, January sales were 23% above pre-pandemic January 2020 level indicating solid market demand going into 2023. Long-term targets are kept intact and the company targets EUR 400m sales and EUR 40m EBIT in 2024. We expect consensus to make slightly positive revisions on the back of Q4 results.
2/13/2023 8:23:07 AM - NoHo Partners: Market demand holding well – January card spending in Finnish restaurants well above 2019 levelcomment - Nordea - Based on Nordea card data for the month of January, Finnish restaurant market nominal growth was up 31% compared to January 2019 with +15% real growth. Owing to restrictions in January 2021, y/y nominal market growth, based on Nordea card data, was +74% in January. In Q4 2022, average monthly growth was +13% compared to Q4 2019 on nominal terms while real growth was +1%. We have modelled NoHo Partners Q4 sales to be up 13% compared to Q4 2019 and up 22.5% y/y. We are 2% below Refinitiv consensus on sales and 7% (EUR 0.5m) below on EBIT for Q4. NoHo will report its Q4 on 16 February and we believe the focus will be on comments concerning outlook for Q1 and even more on 2023. We forecast 2023E sales to be up 10% y/y (1% below consensus), while we have expected 2023E EBIT to be EUR 29.3m, 2% below consensus. We view January card data to be supportive when thinking 2023 outlook. NoHo has target to reach EUR 400m sales with 10% EBIT margin in 2024, of which top line target requires M&A, we believe. For 2024E, we model EUR 366m sales (in line with consensus) and EUR 37m EBIT (10.1% EBIT margin), 4% above consensus at EUR 35.7m (9.7% EBIT margin). We have a fair value range of EUR 10-12.5 per NoHo share.
1/18/2023 7:39:31 AM - NoHo Partners: New main supplier agreement for restaurant services with roughly EUR 15m positive top line impact - Nordea - NoHo Partners has been selected as the main supplier for restaurant services by Helsinki Expo and Convention Centre (brand name Messukeskus) as 1 July 2023. Helsinki Expo and Convention Centre is the largest venue for exhibitions, meetings and congresses in Finland, hosting national and international events for about a million visitors annually. The annual revenue from the restaurant services at the convention centre is approximately EUR 15m. The cooperation is part of NoHo’s large urban projects that is one the key cornerstones towards EUR 400m top line target by 2024. Helsinki Expo and Convention Centre includes 15 different restaurant concepts and tailored restaurant services. The cooperation, mathematically, has around 4% positive top line impact on our top line estimates. Traditionally events business has high margins, while we believe rental levels could maintain EBIT margin of the cooperation at around group EBIT margin levels. Given the size of the cooperation, we believe NoHo needs EUR 2-3m capital expenditures, visible in Q2-Q3 2023. Next large urban project, Kulttuurikasarmi, is expected to be operational at the end of 2023 with four restaurants. We have a fair value range of EUR 10-12.5 per NoHo share.
1/12/2023 1:55:07 PM - NoHo Partners – Nordic restaurant market remained robust during Q4 - Nordea - Based on Nordea card data, the Nordic restaurant market has remained robust in Q4. When comparing to 2019 level, market growth appears to be strongest in Norway with close to 30% higher card spend in restaurants on nominal terms. In Finland, the most important market for NoHo, nominal growth was, on average, 13% when comparing to 2019 level. In real terms, growth was, on average, around 2%. We model NoHo’s Q4 sales up 13% from Q4 2019, 3% below Refinitiv consensus. Similarly, we are 3% below consensus on EBIT for Q4. We expect Finland sales to be up 12% from Q4 2019 level, while we model International sales to be up 19% from Q4 2019. Owing to robust market demand and NoHo’s growth ambitions, we believe the company will continue with its growth investments (e.g. scaling up Friends & Brgrs and M&A especially in Norway). We have a fair value range of EUR 10-12.5 per NoHo share.
11/9/2022 6:35:25 AM - NoHo Partners: In good shape going into high season - Nordea - NoHo Partners' Q3 EBIT was 10% above Refinitiv consensus and the company seemed confident ahead of the high season. Guidance was kept intact, which we view as conservative considering that booking rates and current trading indicate sustained good demand in the restaurant segment. The company renewed its financing agreement, which should enable growth investments and dividend payments as early as in 2022. Despite low consumer confidence, we believe Q4 will be a good quarter in Finland, although there are uncertainties related to 2023 volume outlook. The company, however, appeared confident about reaching its 2024 top-line target of EUR 400m and a 10% EBIT margin. We derive a DCF- and SOTP-based fair value range of EUR 10.0-12.5 (9.9-12.1) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
11/8/2022 7:09:54 AM - NoHo Partners: A solid performance in Q3 with a confident outlook for important Q4 - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q3 EBIT of EUR 8.4m, +10% versus Refinitiv consensus and +6% versus Nordea. Q3 net sales were EUR 86m and came 2% above consensus. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR +10.7m in Q3, while cash position was EUR 4.5m at the end of Q3 (EUR 3.5m at the end of Q2). There were no government grants in Q3. The company recorder EUR 6.7m negative fair value change due to Eezy shareholding to its financing costs (not fully visible in consensus). The guidance for 2022 (upgraded on 3 October) was kept intact. The company is expecting above EUR 300m top line and above 8.5% EBIT margin in restaurant business. Refinitiv consensus has expected EUR 310m sales and an 8.8% EBIT margin in 2022 (Nordea 9.5%). According to the company, the booking situation for Q4 looks good and above the 2019 level. Long-term targets are kept intact and the company targets EUR 400m sales and EUR 40m EBIT in 2024. NoHo Partners expects to reach its below 3x leverage (net debt/operational EBITDA, ex-IFRS 16) target by the year-end and has renewed its financing agreement that enable growth investment during the strategy period. We expect consensus to make slightly positive revisions on the back of Q3 results.
11/7/2022 6:41:31 AM - NoHo Partners: Q3 likely to be strong, focus on outlook for high season and 2023 - Nordea - NoHo Partners will report its Q3 on 8 November. We are 1% below Refinitiv consensus on the top line and 3% ahead on EBIT, while we believe investor focus will be on outlook for important Q4 and even more on 2023. The company upgraded its guidance on 3 October and expects above EUR 300m sales and above 8.5% EBIT margin from the restaurant business. The company will book a clearly negative impact from Eezy shareholding (not fully visible in consensus) to its financing expenses, while this should not drive the share currently, we believe. We expect a strong Q3 from restaurant business with EUR 83.5m sales and EUR 7.9m EBIT, corresponding to a 9.5% EBIT margin. We note that the Finnish restaurant market, based on Nordea card data, has been robust and clearly above 2019 level, even when adjusting for inflation. Similarly, Nordic restaurant market data from Nordea indicate strong marker performance, especially in Norway. Hence, we believe Q3 will be a strong quarter, while market indications point to a strong reservation situation in Q4 as well. For 2022E, Refinitiv consensus is expecting EUR 310m sales and EUR 29.7m EBIT (9.6% EBIT margin), while we have modelled EUR 306m sales and EUR 29m EBIT (9.5% EBIT margin). For 2023E, we are 1% ahead of consensus on EUR 339m sales and 3% ahead on EUR 30.8m EBIT. Until now, the restaurant market has been resilient in the high inflationary and low consumer confidence environment.
10/3/2022 8:34:04 AM - NoHo: The company raises its guidance again given good demand and outlook for the reminder of the year - Nordea - NoHo raised its turnover and EBIT margin guidance today. The company now expect above EUR 300m sales (earlier around EUR 300m) and above 8.5% EBIT margin (earlier above 8%). Guidance upgrade is due to better-than-anticipated demand after the summer, company’s own profitability development and good booking situation for the rest of the year. Refinitiv consensus has been expecting EUR 308m sales and a 9.4% EBIT margin before the positive profit warning and hence we do not expect any material revision to consensus 2022 expectations. However, it appears that the restaurant market is resilient in the current high inflationary and low consumer confidence environment. For Q3 (due on 8 November), we are in line with consensus on sales and 13% above on EBIT.
9/13/2022 7:41:59 AM - NoHo Partners: Restaurant market demand appears to be holding well after the summer - Nordea - The Finnish restaurant market demand has remained solid after summer. Nordea has released card data until week 33 with sales trending clearly above 2019-21. In addition, we note that the company noted in its Q2 that demand has remained favourable early Q3 and bookings for Q4 suggest a solid end to the year. We have considered another guidance upgrade possible in late 2022 and the current market demand situation looks promising. In addition, Kesko disclosed today that its foodservice business (Kespro) sales growth was 28% y/y in August after 3% y/y growth in July. High inflation and low consumer confidence continues to create uncertainties for H2 and 2023, while we believe the restaurant market could be surprisingly resilient, especially after COVID-19 driven restrictions curbed demand during the past years. For Q3, we are in line with Refinitiv consensus on sales and 13% above on EBIT, most likely due to mix effect (higher share of sales from Entertainment venues). We and consensus expect Q3 sales to be up 9% from Q3 2019, which could be viewed conservative when looking the latest card data and taking into consideration acquisitions. For 2022E-23E, we are well in line with consensus.
8/10/2022 5:55:55 AM - NoHo: Q2 underlined improved operational efficiency - Nordea - Q2 EBIT beat Refinitiv consensus by 18%, underlining the improved operational efficiency of the company. Demand has remained favourable in early Q3 and bookings for Q4 suggest a solid end to the year. Guidance was kept intact and we consider another guidance upgrade possible in late 2022. Debt is expected to reach the targeted level in 2022 and the company can then conduct more meaningful acquisitions in 2023 to reach its 2024 top-line target of EUR 400m. Consumer confidence is low and uncertainty is relatively high ahead of an important Q4. We do not expect any meaningful direct impact from inflation. We derive a fair value range of EUR 9.9-12.1 (9.8-12.1) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
8/9/2022 6:10:42 AM - NoHo Partners: Strong Q2 and confident outlook for H2 - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q2 EBIT of EUR 16.1m, +18% versus Refinitiv consensus and +2% versus Nordea. Q2 net sales were EUR 90.2m and came in line with consensus and Nordea. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR +18.3m in Q2, while cash position was EUR 3.5m at the end of Q2 (EUR 2.1m at the end of Q1). Government grants were EUR 4.8m in Q2 while we had anticipated EUR 4.3m. The company does not anymore disclose monthly sales figures, while the guidance for 2022 (upgraded on 22 June) was kept intact. The company is expecting around EUR 300m top line and above 8% EBIT margin in restaurant business. Refinitiv consensus has expected EUR 305m sales and 8.9% EBIT margin in 2022. According to the company, the booking situation for Q4 looks good, especially as weekends are concerned. The company has been able to mitigate inflation impact through purchasing agreements, price increases, and recruitment and resource allocation. Overall, the company expects good restaurant demand to continue in H2. Long-term targets are kept intact and the company targets EUR 400m sales and EUR 40m EBIT in 2024. We expect consensus to make slightly positive EBIT revisions.
8/2/2022 6:13:20 AM - NoHo: Demand has likely remained strong - Nordea - NoHo upgraded its guidance on 22 June due to strong demand in the spring and early summer, as well as governmental compensation decisions. We believe demand has remained strong during the summer, but uncertainties over the important high season have increased owing to high inflation and low consumer confidence. Government grants will have a significant positive impact on Q2, and we expect a solid H2 given pent-up demand. Given the mix, we see potential for a further guidance upgrade, although this is unlikely to materialise before Q4, we believe. We derive a fair value range of EUR 9.8-12.1 (10.0-12.4) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
6/22/2022 7:17:48 AM - NoHo: The company raises EBIT margin guidance for 2022 - Nordea - NoHo increases its guidance for EBIT margin of the restaurant business in 2022. The company now expect EBIT margin to exceed 8% (earlier: around 7%), supported by better-than-anticipated earnings development in the spring and early summer and compensation decisions confirmed by Finnish, Norwegian and Danish governments for H1. Top line guidance remains intact at around EUR 300m. Post-Q1 Infront consensus has been anticipating EUR 301m sales and 7.5% EBIT margin for 2022E and hence we expect around 6-8% positive consensus revisions. We have been in line with consensus on top line for 2022E, while we have been 5% ahead on EBIT. NoHo will release sales figures for June on week 28 and Q2 report on 9 August.
6/14/2022 9:05:29 AM - NoHo Partners: Strong May and positive outlook for the summer season - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported strong May with above EUR 33m sales and above EUR 5.5m operational EBITDA. The company earlier guided for EUR 29-32m sales and 4.5-5.5m operational EBITDA in May. Sales were up 52% compared to May 2019. Normal operations operational EBITDA was EUR 4.5m, while Ice Hockey World Championships boosted top line by EUR 5.7m (Nokia Arena in Tampere). May was third consecutive month with around 15% operational EBITDA margin. The company maintained its June guidance intact and expects sales of EUR 27-30m and operational EBITDA of EUR 3.5-4.5m. In addition to robust Q2 expectations, the company expects fairly positive outlook for the rest of the summer season due to strong potential of entertainment venues. June sales guidance mid-point indicates some 3% upside to consensus Q2 top line (post-Q1 Infront consensus at EUR 88m) and ~1% for 2022E (EUR 301m). We have anticipated EUR 12.8m operational EBITDA in Q2 (no consensus), while the company guidance mid-point for June indicates some EUR 14m operational EBITDA for Q2. We have a fair value range of EUR 10.0-12.4 per NoHo share.
5/11/2022 5:49:35 AM - Entering the high season at a good pace - Nordea - NoHo Partners' Q1 2022 results came in above Infront consensus expectations and it issued new guidance for 2022. Given the accelerating market, the company expects around EUR 300m in sales and ~7% EBIT margin for its restaurant business in 2022. We believe the mix will support Q2 earnings, while H2's outlook could be somewhat dented by rising inflation burdening consumers' disposable income. We believe NoHo might even increase its guidance at a later stage if spending remains solid in H2. Near-term focus will be on lowering its debt level, while more aggressive growth investments should drive top-line growth in 2023-24. We derive a fair value range of EUR 10.0-12.4 (10.3-12.7) per NoHo share.
5/10/2022 6:40:38 AM - NoHo Partners: Guides for EUR 300m top line in 2022 and accelerating market for Q2 - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q1 EBIT of EUR -1.3m, +51% (EUR 1.3m) versus Infront consensus and 33% (EUR 0.3m) below Nordea. Q1 net sales were EUR 48.5m and came 6% above consensus and 1% above Nordea. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR +1.1m in Q1, while cash position was EUR 2.1m at the end of Q1 (EUR 6.4m at the end of Q4). Government grants were EUR 2.1m in Q1. April sales of EUR 28.9m were up 608% y/y (+36% on 2019 level), while the operational EBITDA was EUR 4.5m. The company expects May sales in the range of EUR 29-32m and operational EBITDA between EUR 4.5-5.5m. June sales are expected to be in the range of EUR 27-30m with operational EBITDA of EUR 3.5-4.5m. NoHo issued a new guidance for 2022 and is expecting around EUR 300m top line and around 7% EBIT margin in restaurant business. Infront consensus has expected EUR 286m sales and 7.6% EBIT margin. We believe the guidance includes uncertainties related to general economic situation, cost increases and availability of staff and view the guidance as conservative, especially when thinking profitability. The company expects market to accelerate in Q2 and to be relatively resilient to weakening purchasing power of domestic consumption. We expect consensus to maintain EBIT estimates largely intact.
5/3/2022 5:51:44 AM - NoHo Partners: Fast recovery seen in the restaurant market - Nordea - NoHo Partners will report its Q1 results on 10 May. The restaurant market has witnessed a fast recovery after restrictions were lifted across operating markets. We believe NoHo will get a further boost to its Q2 sales from the Ice Hockey World Championships that will be held in Finland. The company expects business spending to gradually normalise, which we believe will have a positive impact on H2 sales despite uncertainties related to inflation, and to consumer confidence and spending. Owing to positive cash flow trends and the possible divestment of a 20.5% stake in Eezy, the debt level should decrease, lowering the risk level in the company. We derive a fair value range of EUR 10.3-12.7 (EUR 9.9-12.2) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
4/13/2022 6:53:45 AM - NoHo Partners: Strong recovery continued in March - Nordea - NoHo released strong March sales figures with around EUR 26m sales (guided to be over EUR 23m), up 25% from March 2019. March operating cash flow was around EUR 3.5m. The company expects EUR 28m sales and more than EUR 4m positive operating cash flow in April. Q1 sales were around EUR 48m (Refinitiv consensus EUR 42m, although not fully reflecting positive February), down around 4% from Q1 2019. March sales came above NoHo’s expectations, especially due to strategic growth areas in Norway, and Nokia Arena and Friends & Brgrs openings. The company expects the corporate sales to gradually recover in Q2. We note that ice hockey World Championships are held in Finland in Q2, which should boost sales clearly. We view March sales clearly positive for NoHo and note that given stronger-than-anticipated Q1, our Q2 estimates look conservatives (down 5% from Q2 2019). We have a fair value range of EUR 9.9-12.2 per sha re.
3/11/2022 8:16:49 AM - NoHo Partners: Strong February, March expectations above earlier indications - Nordea - NoHo Partners’ February sales were over EUR 15m (earlier guided to be EUR 13-15m) while we had anticipated EUR 13m. Operating cash flow turned positive in February, while we had anticipated EUR 1m negative operating cash flow. The company expects sales to be over EUR 23m and operating cash flow to exceed EUR 3m in March (earlier over EUR 21m sales and EUR 2-3m operating cash flow). We have anticipated EUR 22m sales in March and EUR 3.5m positive operating cash flow. Hence, mathematically, there is some 10% upside to our Q1 top line estimate. According to the company, customer demand has recovered even faster than the company has anticipated. Entertainment venues and nightclubs have seen high demand during first weekend of March and the company has strong booking situation in its restaurants. We view February sales figures and March indications positive for NoHo and note that our H1 estimates look conservative b ased on the recovery pace in the market. The company will report March development during week 15. We have a fair value range of EUR 9.9-12.2 per NoHo share.
2/18/2022 8:12:36 AM - NoHo Partners: Normal market conditions in sight - Nordea - NoHo reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 6.7m, clearly above Infront consensus expectations. The company has improved its underlying profitability clearly during the COVID-19 pandemic and we expect it to reach its 2024 EBIT margin target by 2023. Easing restrictions should allow close to breakeven cash flow for Q1, while the company expects the market to normalise during Q2. The market is clearly poised for a rapid recovery, thanks to significant pent-up demand. NoHo is sticking to its 2024 targets, with EUR 400m of sales and a 10% EBIT margin, which we view as achievable. We derive a fair value range of EUR 9.9-12.2 (9.4-11.7) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
2/17/2022 9:56:29 AM - NoHo Partners: Promising EBIT development in Q4 -Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 6.7m, +58% (EUR 2.5m) versus Infront consensus and 13% above Nordea. Q4 net sales were EUR 69.5m and came 3% above consensus and 2% above Nordea. Operating cash flow was EUR +9.8m in Q4, while cash position was EUR 6.4m at the end of Q4 (EUR 10.9m at the end of Q3). Government grants were EUR 3.0m in Q4. January sales of EUR 6.7m were down 13% y/y (43% of 2019 level), while the company expects February sales in the range of EUR 13-15m and operating cash flow between EUR -1-0m. March sales are expected to exceed EUR 21m with operating cash flow of EUR 2-3m. Cash flow impact is well in line with our expectations. NoHo aims to issue a guidance in conjunction with the Q1 report at the latest. The company has prepared for raw material price increases by centralising purchasing operations and increasing prices. Market is expected to return to normal during Q2 and operating cash flo w should turn positive after mid-February. We expect flat to slightly positive consensus estimate revisions on the back of Q4 numbers and note that company’s comments of operating cash flow for Q1 can be viewed as a slight relief.
2/2/2022 1:33:07 PM - NoHo Partners: Restaurant restrictions in Finland to ease in two weeks - Nordea - According to Finnish prime minister, Finland is aiming to ease restaurant restrictions on 14 February. This would allow restaurants to serve alcohol until 11pm and to remain open until midnight. We have anticipated gradual opening of restaurants during February. However, the government is aiming to abolish all restaurant restrictions at the beginning of March, which comes slightly earlier than we had anticipated. We think NoHo can operate with positive cash flow when restaurants can serve until 11pm and hence the cash flow impact from the latest restrictions might be limited to around EUR -4m. Given the pent up demand, we think the restaurant market is poised for a rapid recovery once restrictions are eased. NoHo will report its Q4 on 17 February. We have a fair value range of EUR 9.4-11.7 per NoHo share.
1/27/2022 6:11:26 AM - NoHo Partners: Easing of restrictions in sight - Nordea - NoHo will report its Q4 figures on 17 February. The company was forced to lower its 2021 guidance on 21 December after more stringent restaurant restrictions were implemented in Finland. We believe these restrictions will be eased in February, however, bringing them more in line with its Nordic neighbours. We therefore believe NoHo will manage to achieve positive operating cash flow by March. The restaurant market is poised for a rapid recovery once restrictions are eased, thanks to significant pent-up demand. NoHo will likely seek to reduce its debt levels, which should have a slight impact on its expansion timetable. We derive a fair value range of EUR 9.4-11.7 per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
12/22/2021 6:53:21 AM - NoHo Partners: Lower guidance and lays off personnel in Finland due to strict restaurant restrictions - Nordea - NoHo Partners lowers its 2021 guidance owing to strict restrictions on restaurant opening hours, local restrictions on gatherings and the Finnish government’s decisions to abolish the use of COVID-19 passport. As a consequence, the company will have to close almost all of its restaurants in Finland and lay off nearly all of its personnel. For 2021E, the company expects around EUR 185m sales (previously: around EUR 190m) and above EUR 10m positive operating cash flow (previously: approximately EUR 12m positive). For Q4, NoHo expects more than EUR 8m positive operating cash flow (previously: more than EUR 10m positive) and below EUR 70m sales (previously: around EUR 70m). Refinitiv consensus has been expecting EUR 187m sales in 2021E. Finnish government announced new restrictions after negotiations on 21 December. New restrictions are coming into force from 24 December and will tighten on 28 December. Restriction s should last for three weeks from 28 December. Traditionally, the beginning of the year is the weak season for the restaurants, hence the impact from the restrictions could be limited for 2022E. However, we note the risk for prolonged situation. Given the new guidance, NoHo implicitly expects its operating cash flow to remain positive in December, while swing in net working capital should cause some short-term liquidity pressure, we note. NoHo had EUR 10.9m cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 while it made additional repayment of loans amounting to EUR 8.7m after Q3. In addition, the company has 5.9m shares in Eezy, worth around EUR 34m.
11/25/2021 1:04:27 PM - NoHo Partners: Restaurant restrictions might tighten in Finland – we expect only a limited direct impact for NoHo - Nordea - The Finnish Minister of Family and Social Services announced that Finland might tighten restaurant restrictions already this weekend. According to the proposal, restaurants would need to close at 5pm, while they could remain open with the use of Covid certificate. Hence, we believe the announcement would not cause any major changes in NoHo’s operations, although recovery pace might slow down. NoHo indicated in its Q3 report that it can operate fairly normally when Covid certificates allow normal business hours for restaurants. However, general environment could cause some burden on business development, while restrictions and wide remote working could burden corporate sales ahead of important high season. Sales will most likely continue to be highly concentrated over weekends. NoHo’s guides for around EUR 70m sales in Q4 (EUR 190m in 2021), while Refinitiv consensus expects EUR 72m. For 2022E, consensus is ex pecting EUR 294m sales, which could become under pressure if the current market sentiment around restaurants and remote working remains intact.
11/10/2021 6:29:50 AM - NoHo Partners: Moving in the right direction - Nordea - Q3 EBIT of EUR 3.9m was well ahead of Infront consensus, supported by the sale of the Eezy stake and government grants in Denmark and Norway. Q3 sales were 20% below the 2019 level, but the market is recovering, as October sales were 10% above the 2019 level. However, NoHo expects Q4 sales to be down around 7% versus Q4 2019, as there are fewer weekends in November and December this year. Underlying B2C growth appears encouraging, while the recovery of the B2B business might take until 2022. The company remains on track to meet its 2024 targets of a EUR 400m top line and 10% EBIT margin (the latter by 2023, we suspect). We derive a fair value range of EUR 9.4-11.7 (8.8-11.0) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
11/9/2021 7:46:51 AM - NoHo Partners: Strong Q3 and introducing guidance for 2021 - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q3 EBIT of EUR 3.9m, +71% (EUR 1.6m) versus Infront consensus. Q3 net sales were EUR 61.9m, in line with pre-released sales figures and 1% above consensus. Operating cash flow was EUR +7.5m in Q3, while cash position was EUR 10.9m at the end of Q3. Government grants were EUR 0.7m in Q3. October sales of EUR 24m were 10% above 2019 level, while the company expects November and December sales to exceed EUR 23m. NoHo issued a guidance for Q4 and 2021: Q4 sales are guided to be around EUR 70m (We have modelled EUR 68m) while the company expects around EUR 190m sales in 2021 with around EUR 12m operating cash flow. At the beginning of November, bookings for high season are at 76% level compared to 2019. International operations are performing well and the company has reached turnaround in Denmark with second consecutive quarter with good EBITDA level. We expect slightly positive consensus estima te revisions on the back of Q3 numbers and note that guidance for 2021 can be viewed as a slight relief.
11/2/2021 6:28:15 AM - NoHo Partners: Pent-up demand is kicking in - Nordea - NoHo Partners will release its Q3 report on 9 November. Given the easing of restaurant restrictions, we believe sales are gradually recovering. The peak season could be characterised by high consumer demand, while corporate sales might continue to be negatively affected by pandemic-related uncertainty. In conjunction with its Q2 report, NoHo expected Q3 sales of EUR 54-59m, which, based on monthly sales figures, it clearly exceeded. We model EUR 62m sales for Q3 (-20% versus Q3 2019) and estimate EUR 68m sales for Q4 (-10% versus Q4 2019). We expect continuing market recovery in 2022 and model EUR 290m sales in 2022E, up 6% from the 2019 level. We derive a fair value range of EUR 8.8-11.0 (8.4-10.6) per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
10/7/2021 7:54:26 AM - NoHo Partners: Strong September sales and cash flow with promising outlook for Q4 - Nordea - NoHo Partners September sales were EUR 18m, above the company’s forecast of EUR 14-16m and taking Q3 sales to roughly EUR 61m (post-Q2 Infront consensus EUR 57.9m and Nordea EUR 60.2m). September sales were up 20% y/y and down 20% from September 2019. Operating cash flow was above EUR 1m and above the company’s forecast of EUR 0-1m. In addition, the company books capital gain of EUR 0.5m from sale of Eezy shares. Outlook for the reminder of the year has improved with easing of restrictions and recovering customer demand. The company expects October sales close to 2019 levels, amounting to EUR 20-22m with above EUR 2m operating cash flow. Booking rate for high season appears promising with November-December bookings at around 60% of the level in 2019. We think the company is proceeding well above its base case released in conjunction with Q2 report. For Q4, we currently model -12% sales growth in comparison to Q4 2019 (consensus -13%). We expect 2021 estimates to come up clearly while we expect more limited changes to 2022-23 as consensus and us expect 5-6% sales increase in comparison to 2019 level and higher EBIT margin in comparison to 2019 (we model Restaurant EBIT margin of 8.2% versus 6.7% in 2019).<br>
9/9/2021 6:55:41 AM - NoHo Partners: August sales at the top-end of expectations, cash flow expected to remain positive in September - Nordea - NoHo Partners released sales figures for the month of August. Sales were approximately EUR 18m (-15% y/y and -35% versus August 2019), while the company was expecting EUR 15-18m. Operating cash flow was positive and above EUR 1m. The company expects EUR 14-16m sales in September with positive cash flow, in line with earlier communication.
8/11/2021 5:54:07 AM - NoHo Partners: Q2 underpins underlying efficiency - Nordea - NoHo reported Q2 EBIT of EUR -1.8m, supported by EUR 4.5m government grants and well above Infront consensus expectations. Underlying efficiency measures are starting to become visible with July sales of above EUR 25m and EUR 4.5m operating cash flow. The company is expecting tougher market conditions in August-September, with more normalised conditions in the more important Q4. However, operating cash flow should remain positive even with the current tighter restrictions. We continue to believe that the EUR 400m sales and 10% EBIT margin by 2024 are reachable and believe that pent-up demand will drive a fast recovery, as seen during June-July, when restrictions are eased again. We derive a fair value range of EUR 8.4-10.6 per NoHo share. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
8/10/2021 6:56:29 AM - NoHo Partners: Expects positive cash flow to stay - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q2 EBIT of EUR -1.8m, +51% versus Refinitiv consensus. Q2 net sales were EUR 34.5m, fairly in line with pre-released sales figures. Operating cash flow was EUR +0.7m in Q2, while cash position was EUR 7.6m at the end of June. Government grants were EUR 4.5m in Q2 (we had expected EUR 4.9m). July sales exceeded EUR 25m and were nearly on a par with 2019 level, while the company expects August and September sales to exceed EUR 14m (We have modelled EUR 69m sales for Q3). July cash flow was EUR +4.5m, while the company expects positive cash flow in August and September. Relative profitability was substantially higher in July compared to 2019 and 2020. The company does not issue guidance due to uncertain market environment and continues with monthly sales reporting.
8/5/2021 9:30:29 AM - NoHo Partners: Potential new restrictions a blip in recovery story - Nordea - NoHo released June sales figures on 13 July with clearly positive operating cash flows. Despite the new wave of COVID-19, we think the company has been able to continue its recovery due to the favourable weather conditions in July. However, uncertainty over government decisions regarding pandemic-related restrictions has increased, although we do not expect similar closures to those in 2020 and earlier this year. The company targets around EUR 400m in sales with a 10% EBIT margin by 2024, which we view as ambitious but reachable. The key growth driver is further M&amp;A in Norway, which should account for about 40% of targeted growth in 2022-24. We derive a fair value range of EUR 8.2-10.4. Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
6/24/2021 5:02:15 AM - NoHo Partners: Strong recovery within Finnish restaurant market - Nordea - Nordea released latest card data from Finland today, now available until week 23. Regarding restaurant market, recovery appears to be fast with the help from easing of restrictions and favourable weather. Card purchases have reached 2019 levels although most densely populated cities restaurants have to close at 11:00pm. We and Refinitiv consensus have anticipated EUR ~15m sales for NoHo in June (EUR 11m in May and EUR 4.7m in April), which might turn out to be too conservative expectation if the current trend holds. Given the current trading conditions, NoHo should be cash flow positive from June onwards. In addition, strong market conditions should secure short-term liquidity through positive working capital impact. Given the restricted foreign travelling, we think summer season will be favourable for NoHo. The company is currently expecting around EUR 280m sales with the current portfolio in 2022, while we thin k NoHo is low-balling its potential and model EUR 294m sales in 2022E. NoHo will report Q2 on 10 August, while it will release June sales figures on week 28. We have a fair value range of 8.6-10.8 per share for NoHo.
6/14/2021 6:40:21 AM - NoHo Partners: Back to growth mode - Nordea - On 11 June, NoHo Partners released a strategy update for 2022-24. The company is targeting around EUR 400m in sales with a 10% EBIT margin by 2024. Although the company has suffered from COVID-19 restrictions, the current easing of restrictions bodes well for the growth targets. The company expects to continue to grow thanks to expansion in Norway, the scaling up of Friends &amp; Brgrs and local blockbuster concepts. It expects sales of around EUR 280m in 2022 with the current structure, while inorganic growth should emerge in 2022. M&amp;A in Norway is set to account for about 40% of the targeted growth in 2022-24. We derive a fair value range of EUR 8.6-10.8. - Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners
5/12/2021 6:11:22 AM - NoHo Partners: Eyeing a pick-up in sales - Nordea - NoHo reported Q1 EBIT of EUR -9.7m, supported by EUR 4m in government grants. Sales are starting to pick up after a gradual easing of restrictions, but further easing in southern Finland is needed before there can be a more broad-based opening of restaurants. Short-term liquidity improved with the sale of Eezy shares, while the company will continue to divest its ownership in order to deleverage and invest in growth. The outlook for the summer has improved somewhat, although a lot depends on government actions. NoHo will shed more light on its 2022-24 strategy and financial targets in June. We derive a fair value range of EUR 7.1-9.2 (6.8-8.7). Marketing material commissioned by NoHo Partners.
5/11/2021 6:54:02 AM - NoHo Partners: Should reach positive cash flow level in June - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported Q1 EBIT of EUR -9.7m, -30% / -36% versus Infront consensus and Nordea, respectively. Q1 net sales were EUR 20.2m, in line with pre-released sales figures. Operating cash flow was EUR -6.7m in Q1, while liquid assets were EUR 9m at the end of April. Government grants were EUR 4m in Q1 (we had expected EUR 2m). April sales of EUR 4.7m were 78% below 2019 level, while the company expects May sales to double m/m. April cash flow EUR -3m, while the company expects around EUR -2m cash flow in May and positive cash flow in June. The company is preparing for wider opening of its restaurants and aims to provide guidance for 2021 in conjunction with Q2 report. NoHo will publish strategy and financial targets for 2022-24 on 17 June.
4/13/2021 2:12:42 PM - NoHo Partners: March sales EUR 4.2m, cash position strengthened - Nordea - NoHo released March sales figures that were roughly 20% of corresponding period in 2019. March sales were approximately EUR 4.2m, above our estimate of EUR ~2m. Hence, Q1 sales approximately EUR 20m (Nordea EUR 18m). Nearly half of the turnover consisted of sales in the first week of March, when restaurants were still open in Finland. March operating cash flow was negative by a clear margin, but the company expects to receive some compensation from the Finnish state at a later stage.
4/7/2021 7:36:46 AM - NoHo Partners: Aiming to open food restaurants in Finland at the beginning of May - Nordea - NoHo’s CEO stated in a Helsingin Sanomat (HS) article that NoHo is planning to open food restaurants in Finland at the beginning of May (with restricted opening hours).
3/25/2021 7:31:12 AM - NoHo Partners: Demand might return fast after restrictions ease - Nordea - Recent upticks in the number of new COVID-19 cases has caused further restrictions in the restaurant market, especially in Finland. NoHo secured short-term financing in February and we find the company well prepared for the eventual easing of restrictions.
2/19/2021 7:47:12 AM - NoHo Partners: Setting up the table for a long dinner - Nordea - NoHo Partners reported a lukewarm Q4 ahead of the low season, but the main focus of the report was the financing package (completed on 15 February) and the outlook for H2 2021 and 2022-23. The company expects the market to start recovering at the beginning of the summer, with business conditions near normal by the end of the year. Internal cost measures should offer solid tailwinds for 2022-23, and the company has clearly shifted its focus to growth. H1 2021 will remain difficult due to pandemic restrictions, but we argue that NoHo is well prepared for a market recovery in H2. We derive a fair value range of EUR 7.1-9.1 (6.4-8.3).
10/1/2020 7:49:30 AM - NoHo Partners: New restrictions starting to hurt restaurants - Nordea - Rising COVID-19 cases have prompted governments to impose stricter restrictions on restaurants. After new restrictions in Finland, NoHo initiated new co-operation negotiations and now expects sales to be down 30-50% y/y in Q4. The company should maintain positive operating cash flow even in the current situation, while possible government support could offer some relief. Despite the worsening operating environment, we think the company is in a much better state than it was in the spring, with a good cash position and more agile operations. However, there is a prevailing risk of a dilutive share issue, as the company needs to be refinanced in Q1 2021 at the latest.