Litium: Fixed revenue base amid uncertain conditions - ABG
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Litium: Fixed revenue base amid uncertain conditions - ABG

We trim '25e-'27e ARR by 1-3% on continued macro weakness
Volume-based revenue growth could pick up in H2'25e
EV/ARR ~2x, '25e EV/EBITDA ~8x


What to look for in Q1'25e

For Q1, we expect reported ARR of ~SEK 74m and sales of SEK 19m. These figures imply y-o-y growth rates of ~5% and ~7%, respectively. We also anticipate EBITDA of ~SEK 5m, which corresponds to a margin of ~25%, and operating cash flow of ~SEK 5m. Given the linearity of the ARR growth and the large share of recurring, fixed revenues, it is unlikely that sales will be more volatile than history suggests. While volumes for B2C are likely to remain suppressed, we believe that the comps are sufficiently easy to warrant growth.
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