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Nyhetsflöde LeadDesk

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4/24/2024 8:28:53 AM - Leaddesk Q1: Sales in line, ARR growth slightly below our estimate - SEB - Leaddesk delivered Q1 broadly in line with our estimates. The sales were in line while the ARR growth came in slightly behind our assumption. On a positive note the improved momentum in Enterprise customer segment has continued and the company advances in continental Europe. Guidance was repeated and looks achievable to us. However, we note that the small miss in ARR sets pressure for near-term estimates.
4/16/2024 5:20:14 AM - Leaddesk: Growth set to continue, but no major steps - SEB - We keep our estimates and fair value range unchanged ahead of Leaddesk’s Q1 report. We believe the ARR continued to tick upwards in Q1, driven by improved momentum for the enterprise segment. While we continue to think emerging AI-enabled solutions will result in less of a need for contact centre workers, we see Leaddesk’s relative position in the SME sector improving.
2/28/2024 6:26:33 AM - Leaddesk: ARR growth ahead of sales growth - SEB - Leaddesk’s case remains intact and its ARR is growing faster than its sales, which means it is in a good position to accelerate growth in 2024E. The company is moving ahead with its AI developments, which should support an improving competitive position in the European SME segment. The changed ARR reporting should improve accuracy in forecasting, we think. Fair value range finetuned to EUR 12-15 (from EUR 12-14).
2/27/2024 7:58:17 AM - Leaddesk Q4: In-line headlines, ARR up 9.4% y/y in comparable FX - SEB - Leaddesk's Q4 numbers were in line with our estimates. Comparing the ARR to our estimate is difficult because the company has changed the calculation method (related to the used FX). However, ARR is up 9.4% in comparable FX and hence the year should start well in line with our estimates (we expect 2024 growth of 9%). Also, the sales guidance mid-point is in line (+1pp) with our growth estimate. Our first read is neutral, but the market may read Q4 as a relief.
2/8/2024 6:29:51 AM - Leaddesk: ARR expectations up after large deals - SEB - We hike our forward-looking estimates ahead of Leaddesk’s Q4 report. While the announced wins do not affect 2023 sales, we think the year-end ARR should rise notably, paving the way for 9% sales growth in 2024. Our fair value range rises to EUR 12-14 from EUR 11-12 and we note that the share is trading at a significant discount to its local, Nordic and global peers.
12/5/2023 6:23:20 AM - Leaddesk: Wins enterprise segment deal from Norway public sector - SEB - Leaddesk announced yesterday a sizeable deal from Norway. The deal should add some 1% to the current sales annually for the next four years. Given that recently the new sales performance in the enterprise segment has been muted we find the deal signals that the market could recover gradually. We project relatively muted growth for 2024 and expect enterprise segment demand to pick up towards 2025.
10/25/2023 5:32:34 PM - Waiting for enterprise gates to open - SEB - Leaddesk delivered solid profitability in Q3, following a fast turnaround process in the acquired Länksilinkki. The market situation for new sales has remained challenging and adverse FX continues to impact headline growth. However, we think that the enterprise segment gates could gradually open, resulting in an acceleration in growth. In such a case, Leaddesk’s valuation (EV/EBITDA of 10x) does not look demanding at all, in our view.
10/25/2023 6:45:53 AM - Leaddesk Q3: Solid beat in EBITDA, ARR marginally below - SEB - Leaddesk's Q3 sales and ARR came in marginally below our estimates. However, the profitability in the quarter came in stronger than expected with EBITDA topping our estimate by EUR 0.3m. The read is that the acquired Länsilinkki operations turnaround has been faster than expeccted. Guidance (profit warning in September) unchanged and based on Q3 ARR and profitability should be easily reached. All in all, we find the report a relief with positive read to profitability.
10/10/2023 6:54:33 AM - LeadDesk: Sequential ARR development in focus - SEB - We make another round of estimate cuts for Leaddesk following the guidance downgrade which was triggered by the continued headwind in FX. Our fair value range comes down to EUR 11-12 (from EUR 13-15) and we note that the scalable SaaS company, which is posting around 10% organic sales growth (2023-25E), is trading at EV/EBITDA of 10.5x. In Q3, we look at the q/q ARR development which should reflect the new sales momentum.
9/20/2023 12:00:08 PM - Leaddesk: Lowers guidance due to weak NOK and SEK - SEB - Leaddesk just issued a profit warning citing the continued headwind in FX. The full year FX impact is around 4% and implies that the organic growth in 2023 should be in range of 5-9%, which is still somewhat below the initial guidance for the year. However, given the tough macro environment we find the overall performance decent.
8/7/2023 8:18:33 PM - Leaddesk: ARR shows growth to pick up in H2 - SEB - We find Leaddesk’s Q2 performance promising despite headline sales coming in below our estimate. The price hikes are kicking in and the company is gaining customers on the SME side while the Enterprise segment remains muted. Leaddesk is currently working actively to develop its AI features, which is highly important in order to keep/improve its market position. Our fair value range is slightly down to EUR 13-15 from EUR 14-16.
8/7/2023 6:38:40 AM - Leaddesk Q2: Sales below but ARR above our estimates - SEB - Driven by the negative FX effect Leaddesk posted Q2 sales below our estimate while the EBITDA was in line with our expectation. Due to reporting principles the FX impact on ARR is smaller and thus ARR came in 2% above our forecast and was up 10% y/y. Guidance was repeated. Despite the negative sales deviation in Q2 the solid ARR performance should offset the estimate revisions. All in all, our first read is slightly negative / neutral.
7/14/2023 6:16:54 AM - Leaddesk: FX headwinds and a fresh acquisition - SEB - Ahead of Leaddesk’s H1 report, we lower our estimates slightly, despite including the recent small acquisition, with organic growth cut on FX and the likelihood of continued slow market momentum. The acquisition of Länsilinkki will enhance Leaddesk’s CPaaS capabilities; we believe the company will be able to rapidly turn around this small loss-making business, adding shareholder value in the process. Our fair value range is trimmed to EUR 14-16 (15-17).
4/25/2023 5:19:51 AM - Leaddesk: On track for a leap in profit - SEB - After an in line Q1 report, we expect Leaddesk to post continued sales and profitability improvements, despite a challenging enterprise customer market. Price rises and new SME sales are key short-term drivers, but the sales cycles for large customers remain lengthy. We keep our estimates intact and repeat our EUR 15-17 fair value range for Leaddesk, which is currently trading at a 2023E EV/EBITDA of 14x.
4/24/2023 6:47:45 AM - Leaddesk Q1: No major deviations, ARR in line - SEB - Leaddesk's Q1 sales were marginally below our estimate while the EBITDA increased y/y by 34% and was broadly in line with our estimate. Also the ARR at the end of the quarter was in line with our assumption. Guidance was repeated. As we expected, Leaddesk sees price hike opportunities from Q2 onward. While the magnitude of the price hikes remain unknown, our first read is that the estimate revisions will be minor based on the Q1 report.
4/13/2023 5:23:51 AM - Leaddesk: We expect a step-up in profit - SEB - We think Leaddesk should improve its profit in Q1 on the back of 8% sales growth and an increased focus on profitability. For the full year, we expect a clear pick-up in profit, despite the new sales market remaining challenging; our annual estimates remain unchanged. We repeat our EUR 15-17 fair value range for the share, which continues to trade at appealing multiples, in our view, given its scalable growth business model and compared to Nordic peers.
2/23/2023 6:14:08 PM - Leaddesk: Another round of positive profit revisions - SEB - Leaddesk’s H2 report was broadly in line with our estimates. However, we slightly raise our EBITDA estimates, as headcount at the end of the year was down by more than we had expected. With an increased profitability focus, the stock is currently trading at a 2023E EV/EBITDA of around 12x, which we think is undemanding should SaaS growth continue. Our fair value range rises slightly to EUR 15-17 (14-16).
2/23/2023 8:38:33 AM - Leaddesk H2: In line report - SEB - Leaddesk posted H2 report well in line with our estimates. The sales and EBITDA came in close to our estimates and the year-end ARR came in marginally higher than we had input. Also, the guidance for 2023E indicates performance well in line with our pre-report estimates. We believe a neutral reaction is justified at first glance.
1/19/2023 6:47:39 AM - Leaddesk: Profitability focus makes EV/EBITDA attractive - SEB - Ahead of Leaddesk’s H2 report we keep our sales and ARR estimates intact, but slightly raise 2023E-24E profitability. Despite the market not being overly favourable, we think the company will be able to deliver healthy organic growth in 2023 and 2024 could see acceleration again. Our fair value range remains EUR 14-16 with the mid-point for this range suggesting 64% potential upside.
1/9/2023 4:58:22 PM - Nordic Seminar: Underlying growth case remains - SEB - At SEB's Nordic Seminar, Leaddesk’s CEO provided a confident growth-oriented message on a continuing SaaS penetration trend and price hike opportunities. Our read is that after some headwinds there are good opportunities to accelerate the growth pace again. If so, we continue to see the valuation as attractive for the growth case. Leaddesk trades currently at 2022E EV/EBITDA of 13x.
12/15/2022 10:44:58 AM - Important resell contract for Finnish healthcare sector - SEB - Leaddesk has landed a contract with Istekki Ltd, enabling Istekki to resell Leaddesk’s callback system widely to the Finnish municipals and especially public healthcare organisations. The callback system is just one part of Leaddesk’s wider customer service solution and hence the financial impacts in 2023 are limited. However, selling the callback system should open opportunities for up-sell of the holistic offering to the healthcare sector, supporting the long-term growth.
10/28/2022 7:28:57 AM - Leaddesk: Good performance in uncertain times - SEB - Leaddesk reported comparable growth of 17% in Q3, which was healthy in view of the macro environment and the slow deployment of some large deals. Having increased our EBITDA estimates materially, we flag that the 2023E EV/EBITDA of 8x does not reflect the solid growth prospects of Leaddesk’s cloud-native product. We increase our fair value range to EUR 14-16 (from EUR 12-15), which is well above the current share price.
10/27/2022 8:05:11 AM - Leaddesk Q3: In line report with ARR slightly better than feared - SEB - Leaddesk delivered sales in line and EBITDA slightly above our estimates. Organic growth improved to 17% and the ARR is still c. 15% up y/y, topping our estimate. The deployment of large enterprise deals is proceeding and should create tailwinds for Q4 and 2023. However, the current economic uncertainty is visible in new business for the enterprise segment. The troubled energy sector looks to have stabilised from Leaddesk's point of view.
10/14/2022 6:44:34 AM - Leaddesk: Highly attractive valuation despite downgrades - SEB - Ahead of Leaddesk’s Q3 report, we cut our estimates, as we think that the weakening macro picture will result in slower sales growth. Also, a stronger US dollar and increasing salary inflation are likely to weigh on profitability. However, we find that a slower pace of growth is more than priced in, and the valuation of this SaaS growth case is highly attractive, given a 2022E EV/sales of 1x and EV/EBITDA at 10x.
8/26/2022 5:52:18 AM - Leaddesk: Expected challenges, but greater impact - SEB - Leaddesk’s Q2 results were below our forecasts as energy sector clients suffered in current environment. Also the prolonged deployment of the enterprise client deals impacted both sales and costs, reminding us that the company still has relatively little experience with enterprise level deals. Our fair value range declines to EUR 19-21 (from EUR 23-25), which still implies 186% valuation upside to the mid-point.
8/25/2022 7:41:38 AM - Leaddesk: Q2 sales growth misses, ARR broadly in line - SEB - Leaddesk's Q2 sales came in some 4% below our estimate as the deployment of large enterprise deals takes longer than expected. The organic growth was just some 7%, which is a bit negative read to us. However the quarter-end ARR came in line with our estimate and is still up 22% y/y. All in all, at first glance a slightly negative performance in Q2, but in our view this is already reflected in the share valuation.
8/17/2022 6:19:53 AM - Leaddesk: Uncertainty to slow down ARR growth - SEB - Ahead of Leaddesk’s H1 report, we lower our estimates, as we think the current uncertainty and abnormal situation in the energy sector will impact growth. We also lower our fair value range to EUR 23-25 (EUR 30-34), as our peer group comparison now weighs short-term EV/EBITDA rather than EV/sales. However, we find the underlying growth drivers intact and see hefty upside from the current valuation.
4/29/2022 5:35:56 AM - Leaddesk: Top line, ARR well on track - SEB - Following Leaddesk’s first Q1 business review we keep our top line estimates virtually intact and have cut our profitability estimates slightly. However, we continue to argue that profitability is not yet the driver of the investment case and, short-term, ARR growth of 30% is more relevant. We remain confident that organic growth will accelerate towards end-2022 as the deployment of large deals proceeds. We have trimmed our fair value range to EUR 30-34.
4/28/2022 8:16:12 AM - Leaddesk Q1: Sales and ARR in line - SEB - Leaddesk's Q1 sales were in line with our estimate while the EBITDA missed marginally. Also the ARR in the end of the quarter was in line with our assumption and increased 30% y/y. The company notes that the deployment of the large enterprise customer deals may take up to 12 months, which explains the fact that sales growth lags ARR growth. Our first take is neutral to positive, given the weak share price development since Q4 release.
4/22/2022 6:57:28 AM - Leaddesk: SaaS growth case valued at 2x sales - SEB - Leaddesk will publish its first Q1 business update on 28 April. Ahead of the numbers we keep our estimates unchanged but provide quarterly estimates, noting that H1 will probably be tilted towards the second quarter. We find Leaddesk’s valuation attractive with sales CAGR of 19% for 2021-2024E and 2024E EV/sales approaching 1x. Our fair value range remains unchanged at EUR 33-37.
2/25/2022 6:53:26 AM - Leaddesk: ARR proves the growth case remains intact - SEB - Leaddesk’s ARR increased 17% from end-H1, which in our view is more important than the headline sales miss. We think the growth case remains intact, but note that the profitability looks to come with a lag compared to our previous estimates. Despite our estimate cuts, the shares trade at 2022E EV/EBITDA of 16x, which is attractive given the company’s growth and scale. Our fair value range is down by EUR 2 to EUR 33-37 (was EUR 35-39).
2/24/2022 8:08:20 AM - Leaddesk H2: Solid growth in ARR - SEB - Leaddesk's ARR rose 17% in six months and was some 6% above our estimate in the end-21. However, the H2 sales came in slightly below our estimate, partially due to a change in accounting practices. Also profitability was weaker than we had input, but we are not concerned about profitability at this stage of the growth story. Looking at the growth guidance of 13-23% for 2022, we are at the upper end of the guidance range.
2/15/2022 4:43:55 PM - Leaddesk: Large deals back ARR growth - SEB - Leaddesk has announced four large deals over the past six months, proving the product’s competitiveness in the enterprise customer segment which is a crucial growth driver for the case. These deals also increase our confidence in the company’s ability to deliver the growth we expect. The short-term risks still relate to the integration of Loxysoft. In the context of rising interest rates and a lower peer valuation, we trim our fair value range to EUR 35-39.
1/13/2022 7:58:28 AM - Leaddesk: Another large deal - SEB - Leaddesk just announced another large deal to provide provide a contact centre solution for Sparebank 1. The three-year deal amounts EUR 1.0m, which translates to 1.7% growth compared to end-H1/21 ARR base. During the past six months Leaddesk has announced three large deals, which we calculate should add close to 7% to the end-H1 ARR. We also highlight the importance of new enterprise-size clients from the investment case perspective.
12/20/2021 7:53:33 AM - Leaddesk: Another major deal with global enterprise customer - SEB - Leaddesk announced on Friday a major deal with total value rising potentially up to EUR 2m. The three year contract should boost ARR by 1.4-3.5%, increasing the confidence on continuing robust growth also in H2/21. The importance of the deal is that the end-customer is a multinational enterprise size client. We note that the company has significant growth potential within the enterprise segment and hence new references are relevant to the case.
11/9/2021 6:53:20 AM - Leaddesk: Sings relevant three year deal - SEB - Leaddesk just announced that it has been selected as a callback service provider to Finnish Student Health Service. The three-year deal amounts EUR 500 thousand. The company's ARR amounted EUR 19.1m in the end-H1/21 and hence the deal adds roughly 1% to the annually recurring revenue base. We estimate the ARR would increase by 11% from H1/21 to end-H2/21 and hence the signed deal is a relevant contributor to the short-term growth.
9/7/2021 5:49:43 AM - LeadDesk: Leading the way to cloud - SEB - We initiate coverage of Leaddesk, a SaaS solution provider for high-volume customer contacting. Leaddesk aims to lead European contact centre cloud adoption by delivering hefty organic growth and being active on the M&amp;A front. Driven by the market cloud adoption trend, we expect an organic sales CAGR of 19% (2021-2023E) that follows the delivered organic CAGR of 22% since 2018. We set our fair value range for Leaddesk at EUR 39-43.<br>
12/1/2020 11:16:19 AM - Almi Invest avyttrar innehav i Loxysoft till Leaddesk - Almi Invest har avyttrat innehavet i Loxysoft till finska mjukvaruföretaget Leaddesk för en delvis köpeskilling om 155 miljoner kronor. Det framgår av ett pressmeddelande.