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Nyhetsflöde BankNordik

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2/28/2024 6:26:15 AM - BankNordik: ~40% of market cap still available for payout - Nordea - Following the publication of BankNordik's 2023 annual report, we make only minor changes to our P&L estimates. Meanwhile, we focus on BankNordik's decision to scrap most of the expected 2023 dividend as a consequence of an investigation by the Danish FSA into the Faroese and Greenlandic property market. In a worst-case scenario, our most qualified guess suggests that the FSA assessment will result in a ~10% increase to Q4 2023 REA by summer 2024. In order to reach and maintain the targeted CET1 ratio of 20%, however, we estimate that BankNordik will still have to distribute ~40% of its current market cap from 2024E-26E. Moreover, the bank is trading at a 2025E excess-capital adjusted P/E of ~5.3x, which corresponds to a ~25% discount versus its Danish peers. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
2/27/2024 8:33:06 AM - BankNordic: 8% beat on net profit in Q4 but major disappointment on capital repatriation - Nordea - Q4 NII came in strong, 3% ahead of our estimate while NCI came in slightly weaker, at DKK 17m versus our estimate at DKK 21m. Insurance income was in line with our estimate while costs came in 1% below (and thus better than) our estimate. Asset quality also remained strong in the quarter with BankNordik reporting only minor loan losses of DKK 5m. Additionally, market value adjustments were very strong in Q4, coming in at DKK 46m versus our estimate at DKK 26m. Thus, net profit ended 8% above our estimate at DKK 89m. On a negative note, BankNordik reported a significant miss to their own and our estimated payout ratio for 2023E, proposing a total dividend of only DKK 80m. This corresponds to a payout ratio of 26%, deviating materially from the bank’s target payout ratio of 70%. The reason behind the weak proposed dividend is, according to the company, an ongoing consultation at the FSA on the status of the Faroese and Greenlandic property markets. However, BankNordik still maintains its 2024 target of reaching a CET1 ratio of 20% and states that in case of a negative outcome from the FSA assessment, it will manage its loan portfolio within a few months to be able to comply with the dividend policy going forward. The Faroese banks are currently displaying their views on why the Faroese and Greenlandic property markets are in fact well-developed and long-established which may ease the imposed increase in the risk-weighting of these assets and leave scope for additional payout in 2024E. Yet, we still expect the share to trade down 5-8% on the news of the weak dividend.
1/26/2024 6:15:50 AM - BankNordik: 2024E guidance slightly cautious as expected - Nordea - This afternoon after market close, BankNordik issued its 2024 net profit guidance of DKK 225-255m, suggesting 2024 ROE of 12-14%. In comparison, we estimate DKK 264m, thus slightly above the upper end of the guidance range. As expected, the guidance range was slightly cautious, as also seen with the initial 2023 guidance when announced same time last year. In the announcement, BankNordik also stated that the 2024 targets remains unchanged, and the bank hence still targets ROE > 12%, cost/income < 53% and a CET1 ratio of 20%. As of Q3 2023E, BankNordik had ROE of 14.1% and a cost/income ratio of 48%. Meanwhile, in order to reach a CET1 ratio of 20%, we estimate that BankNordik will announce a dividend of DKK ~316m in connection with the Q4 2023E report and additional DKK ~300m with the Q4 2024E report. BankNordik wil publish its 2023 annual report on February 27.
1/22/2024 6:30:25 AM - BankNordik: Fourth guidance upgrade suggests solid payout - Nordea - On Friday afternoon, 19 January, BankNordik raised its 2023 net profit guidance for the fourth time due to lower-than-expected impairment levels. Guidance is now ~50% above the initial level from January 2023. With 2023E net profit now expected to be DKK 295-310m and a 2024E CET1 target of 20%, we expect the dividend announcement in connection with the 2023 annual report to offer an ~18.5% yield. We also estimate that ~52% of BankNordik's current market cap will be distributed to shareholders by 2025E. The BankNordik share is trading at a 2025E excess-capital adjusted P/E of 4.4x, which puts the share at a ~35% discount to its peers despite its strong recent performance. <br>Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
11/3/2023 6:17:59 AM - BankNordik: One step closer to the payout shower - Nordea - In light of BankNordik's Q3 report, we raise 2023E-24E adjusted EPS by ~5%. Amid the continued strong results, we estimate that ~40% of the bank's current market cap will have to be distributed to shareholders by 2024 to reach the capitalisation target of a CET1 ratio equal to 20%. This corresponds to an annual 2023E-24E dividend yield of ~19%. For 2023, we now estimate net profit of DKK 289m, which is at the upper end of the bank's current guidance range of DKK 260-290m. BankNordik is currently trading at a 2025E capital-adjusted P/E of ~3.9x, which puts the share at a ~35% discount to its Danish peers. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
11/2/2023 7:48:18 AM - BankNordik: Solid quarter with 8% NII beat - Nordea - Q3 NII came in very strong 8% ahead of our estimate while NCI came in roughly in line with our estimate at DKK 19m. Moreover, insurance income was very strong in Q3 and costs were in line with our estimate at DKK 65m in the quarter. Asset quality also remained strong in Q3 with BankNordik still not reporting loan losses which was also one of the key reasons behind the September guidance upgrade. Overall, net profit came in 21% ahead of our estimate, led by strong results on all key lines in the quarter. Finally, the CET1 ratio was 21.8% in Q3, slightly stronger than our estimate. In light of the strong Q3 report, we are likely to make positive EPS revisions in the range 3-7% for 2023-24E and expect the share to be up today.
10/12/2023 1:53:45 PM - BankNordik: Fine-tuning rate path scenario and earnings - ABG - 11% CAGR in net profit for 2022-25e...<br>...and 10-11% dividend yield p.a. in 2023e-25e<br>Adjusting NII &amp; investment portfolio earnings to new rate scenario
10/11/2023 5:32:04 AM - BankNordik: Tenth consecutive quarter of reversals expected - Nordea - BankNordik will publish its Q3 2023 report on 2 November. Ahead of the report, we raise 2023E net profit by ~5%, to DKK 274m, which is roughly at the midpoint of BankNordik's new guidance range following the September upgrade. Moreover, we estimate that ~55% of the bank's current market cap is set to be distributed to shareholders by 2025, corresponding to an average annual dividend yield of ~18%. At the same time, BankNordik is trading at a 2025E P/E of 3.8x, which puts the share at a ~40% discount to its Danish peers despite its recent strong performance. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
9/19/2023 11:52:14 AM - BankNordik: Another 10% guidance upgrade bodes well for H2 2023 - Nordea - Today, BankNordik upgraded its FY 2023E net profit guidance from DKK 235-265m to DKK 260-290m, corresponding to a ~10% guidance upgrade at the midpoint. The upgrade was driven by an improved outlook in core operations as well as customer resilience which has led to lower-than-expected impairment levels – similar to the reasons behind the guidance upgrade back in June 2023. For FY 2023E, we currently estimate net profit of EUR 260m which is hence in the low end of the new guidance range. In order to reach the midpoint of the new net profit guidance, we would have to lift our FY 2023E net profit estimate by ~6%. BankNordik will publish its Third Quarter financial results on November 2nd.
8/21/2023 8:18:21 AM - BankNordik: Q2 beat on credit quality, NII and insurance - ABG - Net profit in Q2 13% above ABGSCe driven by...<br>...loan loss reversals, NII, insurance and other operating income<br>We lift 2023e adjusted EPS by 6%
8/4/2023 5:55:29 AM - BankNordik: Jumbo payout yield at a discount - Nordea - Following BankNordik's Q2 2023 report, we leave 2023E-25E adjusted EPS roughly unchanged. Meanwhile, we raise 2023E-24E DPS by 2-7% as significant REA reductions q/q mean that BankNordik will likely have to distribute more to shareholders to reach its proposed CET1 target of 20% by 2024. We therefore estimate that ~45% of the bank's current market cap will be paid out by 2024. For 2023, we estimate net profit of DKK 260m, which is in at the upper end of BankNordik's current guidance range. BankNordik is trading at a 2025E capital-adjusted P/E of ~3.4x, which puts the share at a ~45% discount to its Danish peers.
8/3/2023 6:45:17 AM - BankNordik: Another strong result with continued solid asset quality - Nordea - Q2 NII came in 2% above our estimate at DKK 86m while NCI came in at DKK 19m versus our estimate at DKK 22m. Moreover, insurance income was particularly strong in Q2, coming in at DKK 19m versus our estimate at DKK 11m. Meanwhile, costs were in line with our estimate. Asset quality remained very strong in the quarter with BankNordik reporting reversals of DKK 7m while we expected DKK 0m. On the other hand, Q2 market value adjustments came in weaker than our estimate at DKK 15m (we estimated DKK 23m). Overall, net profit came in 2% ahead of our estimate. Finally, BankNordik also reported an increase in the management estimated provision from DKK 65m to DKK 75m due to the continued uncertain environment. We are likely to make small EPS revisions in light of the report and expect the share to be slightly up today.
7/25/2023 5:13:26 AM - BankNordik: Solid outlook and significant discount to peers - Nordea - BankNordik will publish its Q2 2023 report on 3 August. Ahead of the report, we raise our 2023-25 NII estimates by 1-3% while also raising cost estimates by ~1%. This leaves us with an estimated 2023 net profit of DKK 261m, which is at the upper end of BankNordik's guidance range that was upgraded in June. Moreover, we still believe that BankNordik is set to distribute ~40% of its current market cap by 2024 to reach the proposed capitalisation target of a CET1 ratio equal to 20%. We also continue to see scope for more when it comes to the proposed 2024 targets on ROE and cost/income, where we are currently ahead of the targets. Lastly, BankNordik is trading at a capital-adjusted 2025E P/E of ~3.4x, which puts the share at a ~45% discount to its Danish peers.
6/16/2023 6:43:36 AM - BankNordik: 10% guidance upgrade in line with expectations - Nordea - This morning, BankNordik upgraded its FY 2023E net profit guidance from DKK 210-240m to DKK 235-265m, corresponding to a ~10% upgrade. The upgrade was driven by an improved outlook in core operations and customer resilience which has led to lower-than-expected impairment levels. On Wednesday, we published a flash in which it was stated that we saw upside to the old guidance and hence, this upgrade was in line with our expectations. We currently estimate net profit in 2023E of DKK 253m which is slightly above the midpoint of the new guidance. However, in light of the rate hike by the Danish Central Bank yesterday and the upgrade, our estimates could come up further.
6/14/2023 1:02:27 PM - BankNordik: DKK ~1.1bn in dividends since 2021 - we still estimate ~40% of current market cap to be distributed by 2024 - Nordea - The BankNordik share is up by ~8% over the past week and ~24% YTD adjusted for the dividend payout in April. Despite recent strong performance, valuation is still low and BankNordik is currently trading at a 2025E capital adjusted P/E of ~3.2x, corresponding to a ~50% discount to its Danish peers. In addition to the low valuation, we believe the 2023 net profit guidance seems to be conservative given NII tailwinds from recent rate hikes. We also see upside to the bank’s proposed 2024 targets and expect BankNordik to continue its solid capital distribution to shareholders to reach a CET1 ratio of 20%. From 2020 up until today, the total accumulated shareholder return on the BankNordik share has been ~116%, in which ~75% of market cap has been paid out to shareholders through dividends (DKK ~1.1bn). Despite this, we still estimate that ~40% of the bank’s current market cap will be distributed by the end of 2024.
4/28/2023 8:23:52 AM - BankNordik: Solid PTP beat outshines insurance difficulties - ABG - Net profit in Q1 18% above ABGSCe driven by...<br>...loan loss reversals and investment portfolio earnings<br>We lift 2023e adjusted EPS by 6%
4/28/2023 8:21:01 AM - BankNordik: ~5% upside to net profit guidance for 2023E - Nordea - Following BankNordik's Q1 report, we lift 2023E adjusted EPS by ~3% to reflect the continued solid asset quality after yet another quarter with loan loss reversals despite the uncertain economic environment. This leaves our 2023 net profit estimate at DKK 253m, ~5% above the upper end of BankNordik's guidance range (DKK 210-240m), which was upgraded in an announcement last week. Hence, we see scope for another guidance upgrade down the road. In light of the Q1 report, we also remain confident that BankNordik will be able to reach its proposed 2024 targets and probably even exceed them. Finally, we estimate that ~60% of BankNordik's current market cap will be paid out to shareholders by 2025. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
4/27/2023 8:30:31 AM - BankNordik: 18% PTP beat despite insurance headwind - ABG - Pre-tax profit 18% above our expectations driven by...<br>... loan loss reversals and investment portfolio income<br>We expect a modest positive stock reaction today
4/27/2023 8:24:17 AM - BankNordik: Q1 net profit came in 7% above our estimate led by continued solid asset quality - Nordea - Q1 NII came in 1% above our estimate at DKK 78m while NCI came in at DKK 21m versus our estimate at DKK 23m. Moreover, costs came in 4% above (and thus worse than) our estimate. On asset quality, BankNordik reported a solid DKK 8m in reversals whereas we expected loan losses of DKK 2m. Additionally, market value adjustments came in at DKK 22m versus our estimate of DKK 16m. Hence, net profit for Q1 came in DKK 7% above our estimate. BankNordik also reported an increase in the management estimated provision from DKK 56m to DKK 65m due to the uncertain economic environment. Finally, the CET1 ratio came in at 21.0% compared to our estimate of 22.3% due to temporary deduction of the full Q1 net profit. We are likely to make minor EPS revisions in light of the report and expect the share to be slightly up today.
4/20/2023 6:08:58 AM - BankNordik: Solid momentum prompts upside to 2024 targets - Nordea - On Tuesday, 18 April, BankNordik upgraded its 2023 net profit guidance to DKK 210-240m (previously DKK 190-220m), led by solid NII and strong asset quality. We leave our estimate for 2023 net profit at DKK 245m, roughly unchanged, because the operational improvements were already reflected in our numbers. We still believe that BankNordik is on track to reach its 2024 targets and we even see scope for an upgrade down the road, given the current earnings outlook. Also, despite the fact that BankNordik has distributed more than DKK 110 per share in dividends during the past two years, we expect the bank to distribute another DKK 88 per share until the end of 2025. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
4/20/2023 6:01:52 AM - BankNordik: NII keeps climbing in a solid quarter - ABG - 11% CAGR in net profit for 2022-'25e...<br>...and 12% dividend yield p.a. in 2023e-'25e<br>For Q1, we focus on NII in a solid quarter
4/18/2023 9:39:18 AM - BankNordik: Follows suit with a guidance upgrade - ABG - FY net profit guidance lifted 9-11% to DKK 210-240m (190-220m)<br>Strong NII and asset quality offset headwind on insurance inc.<br>We expect a positive stock reaction today based on the upgrade
2/27/2023 7:15:12 AM - Case intact: Significant payout set to continue - Nordea - In conjunction with its Q4 report, BankNordik announced a total dividend of DKK 250m to be paid out after the annual general meeting in March 2023. The dividend was in line with our estimate and constitutes ~15% of the bank's current market cap. BankNordik's case remains intact and it remains on track to reach its 2024 targets. We lower our cost estimates for 2023-24 to reflect the bank's cost management efforts and recognised one-off costs associated with management and board changes in 2022. We remain confident that BankNordik will continue distributing capital, with ~60% of its current market cap paid out to shareholders by 2024E. Adjusted for excess capital and dividends, BankNordik is trading at a 2024E P/E of 5.2x, corresponding to a ~40% discount to its Danish peers. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
2/27/2023 7:14:42 AM - BankNordik: Still the strongest div case after the jumbo div - ABG - Q4'22: Pre-tax profit in line with expectations<br>Jumbo dividend of DKK 26 offers a yield of 14.5%<br>2023e-24e div yields of 10-11% at 7.7x '24e adj. P/E
2/24/2023 8:19:40 AM - BankNordik: DKK 250m dividend announced, corresponding to 15% of market cap - Nordea - On January 26th 2023, BankNordik published a statement in which the bank narrowed its 2022E net profit guidance to DKK 160-170m and announced its 2023 net profit guidance of DKK 190-220m. The 2024 targets were also revised in the statement and hence, capital distribution was the center of attention when the report was published this morning. BankNordik announced that it expects to distribute DKK 115m in ordinary dividends, corresponding to 70% of net profit for 2022 and also proposes an extraordinary dividend of DKK 135m to be distributed to shareholders, in line with our estimates. The total dividend payment of DKK 250m corresponds to 15% of the bank’s current market cap and supports the proposed 2024 target of a CET-1 ratio equal to 20%. Moreover, costs came in strong in Q4 at DKK 58m versus our estimate of DKK 65m. Asset quality also remained strong with BankNordik reporting reversals of DKK 3m, on par with our estimate. BankNordik is currently trading at a 2024E P/E of 6.8x and 5.8x adjusted for this dividend which puts the bank at an attractive valuation compared to most of its Danish peers.
2/24/2023 8:19:09 AM - BankNordik: Delivering on the dividend yield - ABG - Q4'22 pre-tax profit in line with ABGSC<br>Just soft on NII but strong in the subsegments<br>Delivering the 15% dividend yield
2/20/2023 6:45:09 AM - BankNordik: This NII train goes to Dividend City - ABG - Strong end to the year from NII and market value adjustments<br>Another jumbo dividend yield of 15% for '22e. ~9% for '23e-'24e<br>Still below peers at '24e adj. P/E of 7.6x despite +30% YTD perf.
1/30/2023 8:14:57 AM - BankNordik: ~16% dividend yield and 50% discount to peers - Nordea - BankNordik has announced 2023 net profit guidance of DKK 190-220m, alongside a revision of its 2024 targets. The bank now expects net profit of DKK 160-170m for 2022 – we estimate DKK 169m. We pencil in the effects of two additional hikes expected in Q1 2023, totalling 80 bp for BankNordik, which prompts us to raise 2023E-24E adjusted EPS by 2-9%. We also expect ~60% of BankNordik's market cap will be paid out to shareholders by 2024 in order for the bank to reach its 2024 capitalisation target. We lift our Gordon growth-based fair value range to DKK 259-289 (243-270). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
12/20/2022 7:51:12 AM - Banknordik: Guidance upgrade bodes well for 2023E-24E - Nordea - Yesterday, BankNordik adjusted its 2022 net profit guidance upwards, from DKK 140-170m to DKK 160-190m. The upgrade was driven by the financial market's development and its impact on BankNordik's market value, as well as its better-than-expected operating profit YTD. We raise 2022E adjusted EPS by ~13% and 2023E-24E EPS by ~4-7%. We also lift our Gordon growth-based fair value range to DKK 243-270 (227-253). The share is trading at a 2024E excess capital-adjusted P/E of ~3.5x, roughly 55% below Danish peers. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
12/19/2022 1:36:54 PM - BankNordik: Guidance upgrade on strong Q4 - ABG - On Monday morning BankNordik upgraded its net profit guidance for 2022 back to DKK 160-190m which was also its guidance range before its downgrade to DKK 140-170m on 17 October. Today's guidance upgrade came as a result of a slightly larger net interest income effect in Q4 than BankNordik initially had expected and the positive development on the financial markets which has led to regained strength in the market value adjustments after considerable losses in Q2 and Q3.
12/19/2022 10:06:14 AM - Banknordik: Upgrade of 2022E net profit guidance - Nordea - BankNordik just upgraded its net profit guidance for 2022 from DKK 140-170m to DKK 160-190m. We currently estimate 2022E net profit of DKK 157m. The upgrade is driven by the impact that the current development on the financial markets has on BankNordik’s market value adjustments and by better-than-expected operating profit up until now. We are likely to make positive EPS revisions of 10-15% for 2022E and positive EPS revisions of 3-7% for 2023E-24E.
11/4/2022 8:49:27 AM - BankNordik: Another stable quarter apart from investments - ABG - Investment portfolio earnings the only disturbance…<br>…in another solid quarter from BankNordik<br>Mid-range net profit expected despite investment losses
11/4/2022 6:50:10 AM - BankNordik: Rate hikes bode well for 2023E - Nordea - Following BankNordik's Q3 report, we lift 2023E-24E adjusted EPS by ~11-15% to reflect a positive impact on both NII and investment income from rate hikes. Moreover, we now expect an ROE of ~12% by 2024, which is 2 pp above BankNordik's proposed 2024 target. Hence, this suggests that there may be scope for a guidance upgrade down the road. We still expect that ~70% of the bank's market cap will be paid out to shareholders by the end of 2024 in order for the bank to reach its capitalisation target. Lastly, we raise our Gordon growth-based fair value range to DKK 227-253 (197-220). The share is trading at a 2024E excess capital-adjusted P/E of ~3.3x, ~55% below peers. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
11/3/2022 1:20:26 PM - BankNordik: Reversals and costs were higher than expected in Q3 - Nordea - Both NII and NCI came in slightly better than expected in Q3. NII was 1% above our estimate while NCI landed 3% ahead of our estimate. Moreover, asset quality remained strong in the quarter with reversals coming in at DKK 12m versus our estimate of DKK 3m. Meanwhile, costs came in 5% above our estimate, led by increased employee costs during a period of transition. As expected, the investment portfolio was negatively impacted by the current market turbulence. Finally, net profit came in at DKK 20m, in line with our estimate. The Q3 report will not cause us to make any significant estimate revisions for the remainder of 2022. However, further rate hikes since our last report will likely lead to positive EPS revisions of 3-5% for 2023E-24E. We expect the BankNordik share to trade roughly flat today.
11/3/2022 10:04:08 AM - BankNordik: Net profit miss but core operations are solid - ABG - Losses on bond portfolio behind net profit…<br>… as indicated in net profit downgrade in October<br>Core operations remain solid despite low NII effect in Q3
10/20/2022 7:26:49 AM - BankNordik: Market value adjustments behind PW - ABG - New net profit guidance DKK 140m-170m (160m-190m)
10/18/2022 6:23:46 AM - BankNordik: Solid capital distribution expected - Nordea - With a ~70% payout yield up to 2024E, capital repatriation remains key for the BankNordik share. Moreover, the two recent interest rate hikes should be net positive for BankNordik, as we expect an anticipated step-up in investment income to outweigh the negative second order effect from rate hikes on lending growth. However, yesterday (17 October) BankNordik downgraded its 2022 net profit guidance to DKK 140-170m due to negative market value adjustments. Yet, the negative market value adjustments should be seen together with an expected higher yield on the fixed income portfolio, which prompts us to make positive EPS revisions of 7-9% for 2023E-24E. Finally, we raise our Gordon growth-based fair value range to DKK 197-220 (177-199). The share is trading at a 2024E excess capital-adjusted P/E of ~3.6x, ~50% below its Danish peers. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
9/21/2022 11:53:18 AM - BankNordik: ABGSC’s DK small/mid-cap seminar feedback - ABG - Incoming CEO presented at today’s Copenhagen seminar
8/5/2022 6:20:01 AM - BankNordik: Insurance and loan loss reversals stand out - ABG - Profit before tax at DKK 54m, 8% above ABGSCe
8/5/2022 5:45:25 AM - BankNordik: Another quarter of solid asset quality - Nordea - Following BankNordik's Q2 2022 report, we lift 2022E-24E adjusted EPS by ~1%, primarily due to improved loan loss estimates but partly offset by higher cost estimates. We estimate 2022 net profit of DKK 182m, which is at the upper end of the bank's guidance range. Meanwhile, the CET1 ratio came in 40 bp weaker than our estimate for Q2 owing to an increase in REA. We believe that this increase will be temporary, however, and expect REA to return to normalised levels in 2023. Hence, we still expect that ~65% of the bank's market cap is likely to be distributed to shareholders by 2024. The BankNordik share currently trades at a 2024E excess capital- and dividend-adjusted P/E of 4x, which is 50% below its Danish peers. Following the Q2 report, our new Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 176-197 (177-199). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
8/4/2022 7:28:50 AM - BankNordik: High loan loss reversals in a stable quarter - ABG - Profit before tax came in 8% above ABGSC
8/4/2022 6:47:53 AM - BankNordik: Q2 as expected – minor EPS revisions expected - Nordea - Q2 NII, NCI and insurance income came in as expected. Lending was roughly flat q/q and was in line with our estimate. Costs were 1% above our estimate but we are unlikely to make revisions to our cost estimate for H2 22. Asset quality was very strong as loan loss reversals were DKK 14m better than our estimate, leading to a 16% beat on operating profit. On the negative side, the CET-1 ratio were 40bp lower than our estimate, as a consequence of higher REA. We are likely to make only minor EPS revisions on the back of the report and we expect the share to be roughly flat today. BankNordik’s FY 2022 net profit guidance was left unchanged at DKK 160-190m. We estimate DKK 181m.
7/29/2022 6:16:26 AM - BankNordik: Solid earnings in sight - Nordea - BankNordik is set to distribute ~65% of its market cap to shareholders by 2024 in order to reach its 2024 capitalisation target. Meanwhile, smaller positive NII adjustments offset by negative NCI adjustments for 2022 leave our 2022 net profit estimate roughly unchanged at DKK 181m, which is at the upper end of BankNordik's guidance range.
7/28/2022 8:55:44 AM - BankNordik: Another stable quarter before rate hikes kick in - ABG - BankNordik set to report a solid Q2 on 4 August Fee income under pressure but insurance looks strong Valuation at 5.6x 24e adj. P/E and 22e 9.7% yield Net commission income weakens a solid quarter
5/24/2022 5:52:34 AM - BankNordik: Solid guidance upgrade prompts EPS hikes - Nordea - BankNordik raised its 2022 net profit guidance by ~20%, up to DKK 160-190m, from DKK 130-160m previously. The upgrade was led by better underlying operations and loan-loss reversals. We believe strong NCI and insurance income, which were also healthy in Q1 2022, could be the drivers behind its strong underlying operations. We lift 2022E EPS by 9%, prompted by improved NCI, insurance and loan losses. We raise EPS by 2-3% for 2023E-24E. We lift our Gordon growth-based fair value range to DKK 161-181 (157-176). BankNordik is trading at a 2024E P/E of 6.9x. Adjusted for expected dividends in 2022E-23E, the company is presently trading at just ~5x, which is ~35% below its Danish peers. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
5/23/2022 12:55:12 PM - BankNordik: Upgrading FY 2022 profit ~20% - Nordea - BankNordik just raised its 2022 net profit guidance by 21% to DKK 160-190m from previously DKK 130-160m. The guidance is raised due to better underlying operations as well as reversals of loan loss provisions. We estimate a 2022 net profit of DKK 167m which is ~5% below the mid point of the guidance range. Our estimate is 12% below the upper end of the range. We are likely to make positive revisions to our 2022 net profit of ~5-10% while we expect to make small positive revisions to our 2023E-2024E EPS estimates. BankNordik trades at a 2024E P/E of 7.1x. Adjusted for capital repatriation it trades at only ~4.8x
4/29/2022 8:29:13 AM - BankNordik: A solid start to the year - Nordea - BankNordik reported solid Q1 2022 figures across all income lines, and underlying profitability came in 9% ahead of our estimate. Also, loan loss reversals contributed positively to profitability, which underpins resilience in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. We raise 2022E adjusted EPS by 16%, albeit with the majority stemming from low-quality items. Following strong profitability in Q1 2022, BankNordik states that it now aims at the upper end of its 2022 full-year guidance range for net profit (DKK 130-160m). We estimate DKK 167m and hence see scope for a guidance upgrade – potentially already ahead of Q2 2022. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value is DKK 157-176 (DKK 155-174). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
4/28/2022 9:31:15 AM - BankNordik: Q1 2022 first impression - A solid start to the year - Nordea - Q1 2022 PBLL came in at a solid DKK 49m, DKK 4m (9%) above our estimate, led by strong numbers across all income lines. Net interest income was stable q/q, but 3% above our estimate, as negative interest on deposits and a steady increase in lending offset margin pressure. Net fee income came in at DKK 22m, 6% ahead of our estimate. Also, insurance income was solid following last year’s repricing efforts. On the negative side, BankNordik reported a miss on costs due to higher IT expenses. CET1 ratio came in at 23.8% in Q1 2022. We estimated 24%. Comments on asset quality is in focus amid the war in Ukraine. Although long-term implications of the war remain uncertain, loan loss reversals of DKK 10m contributed positively to the Q1 2022 result. Following solid profitability in Q1 2022, BankNordik now aims at the upper range of the previously communicated full-year guidance range (net profit DKK 130-160m), according to management. We estimate DKK ~144m and hence positive revisions are warranted. All in all, a strong start to the year, which lays a solid foundation for the ongoing capital repatriation efforts. The share should trade in-line or above peers following today’s report.
4/25/2022 7:34:35 AM - BankNordik: Capital shower to continue - Nordea - BankNordik has now fully distributed excess capital from the sale of its Danish business – one year ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, the capital shower continues; we estimate up to ~60% of its market cap will be distributed until 2024. BankNordik's 2024E ROE target implies ~10% upside to our estimate. We take a cautious approach to new lending growth, but see scope for positive EPS revisions ahead. Asset quality is in focus amid the war in Ukraine, but we do not see any clouds in the sky at this time. We lower 2022E pre-tax profit due to market value adjustments, while we leave our 2023-24 estimates mostly unchanged. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 155-174 (i.e. DKK 195-214 pre-dividend). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
2/28/2022 7:47:38 AM - BankNordik: Quality is rewarded - Nordea - BankNordik reported solid Q4 figures across most quality lines, manifesting its renewed focus on operational profitability which continues to materialise somewhat ahead of our estimates. BankNordik now plans to distribute the remaining DKK 250m from the divestment of its Danish business by March 2022 (previously 2022). Together with the ordinary dividend of DKK 136m, this makes up a payout yield of ~25%, based on Friday’s (25 February) closing price. Overall the report supports our view of a solid capital repatriation story, which sees further substance from the positive operational trends. We raise 2022E-23E adjusted EPS by 2-3%, following Friday's report. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value is DKK 192-212 (DKK 180-200). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
2/25/2022 8:45:34 AM - BankNordik: Case intact - DKK 386m dividend (DKK 40.2 per share) by March 2022 - Nordea - BankNordik’s 2021 result was pre-announced and hence all focus on underlying profitability and the ongoing capital optimisation efforts. Q4 2021 PBLL came in DKK 46m, which was DKK 4m (8%) ahead of estimate. On the positive side, net fee income was up 44% y/y and 15% ahead of our estimate, as BankNordik saw strong effects from its ongoing repricing efforts. Also, operating costs was strong, DKK 3m below (better) that our estimate. On the negative side, however, insurance income was soft. The CET1 ratio came in at 23.8%, 3.1 pp below our estimate, as BankNordik now is deducting the remaining DKK 250m EO dividend from the sale of its Danish activities, which is expected to be paid out in March 2022. Together with the proposed ordinary dividend payment of DKK 136m, this corresponds to a payout yield of 28%, based on yesterday’s closing price. All in all, a high quality report, which reaffirms the long-term profi tability and capital repatriation story and warrants positive EPS revisions. The share is likely to trade above peers following today’s report.
2/25/2022 8:08:01 AM - BankNordik: Reversals of loan losses behind Q4 beat - ABG - Q4’21 operating profit came in 28% above ABGSC<br> Net profit guidance of DKK 130-160m for 2022e<br> Mid-guidance implies a valuation of P/E 10x for 2022
1/31/2022 6:44:09 AM - BankNordik: Cash is king - Nordea - On Friday, 28 January, BankNordik lifted its 2021 net profit guidance to DKK 270m (previously DKK 230-250m), led by a positive asset quality development. Similar to its Danish peers, BankNordik also provided its initial outlook for 2022, stating that it expects net profit of DKK 130-160m for the year. We lift our estimate to DKK 150m. With the announcement of its 2024 capital targets in conjunction with its Q3 report, BankNordik has set the stage for excessive capital distributions in the years ahead. We expect its capital optimisation efforts to yield a negative effect on NII, albeit partly offset by positive effects from repricing initiatives within the insurance portfolio. We hence lower 2023E NII by ~2% and increase 2022E-23E net insurance income by ~4%. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value is DKK 180-200 (163-186). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
1/28/2022 3:03:54 PM - BankNordik: 2021 net profits 13% above our estimate – 2022 outlook to trigger minor positive EPS revisions - Nordea - Today (Jan 28) BankNordik has adjusted its net profit guidance for 2021 and provided an initial outlook for 2022. In terms of the 2021 guidance, BankNordik now expects FY net profits of DKK ~270m (previously DKK 230-250m). We estimate 2021 net profit of DKK 239m, i.e. the new guidance implies a 13% beat to our estimates on a full-year basis and whole 73% beat on quarterly basis for Q4 2021. According to the announcement, the guidance revision is driven by solid asset quality as well as operational improvements. BankNordik does not provide details on the split, however, we believe the majority of the upgrade is driven by loans loss reversals (i.e. low quality) - in line with what we have seen from the other Danish banks ahead of Q4 2021. In terms of the new 2022 outlook, BankNordik expects net profits in the range DKK 130-160m. We estimate 2022 net profits of DKK 143m, which leaves us slightly below the new guidan ce midpoint. We expect to make minor positive EPS revisions following today’s announcement.
1/20/2022 3:10:13 PM - BankNordik: Could stay overcapitalized despite high DPS - ABG - Lower costs to drive Q4’21 PBLL well up y-o-y DKK 13 ordinary EPS for ‘21e, DKK 26 EO DPS H1’22e Trading at a ’23 P/E of 7.5x and 5.5x adjusted for DPS
12/15/2021 7:26:59 AM - BankNordik: 1 pp higher capital requirement will not affect capital repatriation - Nordea - On Tuesday the Danish Systemic Risk Council announced an increase to the Faroese counter-cyclical buffer to 1% (0%). BankNordik’s total CET 1-requirement including the 1 pp CcyB is ~12.3%, we estimate. BankNordik’s new CET 1-target and our 2024E CET 1-ratio estimate of 20% is hence materially above the requirement including the new 1 pp buffer requirement. BankNordik’s total MREL requirement will go to 30.6% (29.8%), we estimate. BankNordik’s MREL capital was 33.1% including 9m21 profits but reduced by the ordinary 50% dividend payout and reduced by the DKK 450m special dividend already paid. That is, BankNordik’s total MREL capital was 2.5 pp above the new requirement. BankNordik aims to have a 2 pp buffer to the MREL requirement. The new 1 pp buffer will be implemented from 31 March 2023. Based on BankNordik’s strong capitalisation we do not expect the new 1 pp counter-cyclical buffer to impact our capital repatriation estimates but we still expect BankNordik to issue new SNP bonds as equity capital is repatriated to keep total capital above the MREL requirement. We expect BankNordik to repatriate DKK 985m (74% of Mcap) from 2021E to 2024E in dividends and share buybacks to reach a ~20% CET-1 ratio in 2024E.
12/7/2021 2:56:07 PM - BankNordik: ABGSC’s Investor Day feedback - ABG - Planning for EO DPS of DKK 26 in 2022 (yield 18%)<br>Targeting ROE above 10% with normal loan losses<br>’22e adj. PE of 7.4x, 5.4x adj. for dividends
11/3/2021 6:35:08 AM - BankNordik: Capital optimisation may be a value trigger - Nordea - BankNordik's Q3 pre-tax profit was DKK 54m, DKK 8m (15%) below our estimate led by a DKK 7m (35%) miss on loan losses. With the Q3 results, BankNordik announced its new 2024 financial targets aiming at an ROE of above 10% (previous 8%) and a CET1 ratio of below 20% (previously ~23%). BankNordik now aims for a cost/income ratio of below 55% (from previously ~55%). The higher ROE ambition is hence mainly fuelled by capital optimisation. We estimate a 2023 ROE of 8.5%, a cost/income of 54% and a CET1 ratio of 20.6%. Hence, the 2024 ROE seems slightly ambitious but within reach. We cut 2022E-23E net profits by 2-4% while we raise 2023E adjusted EPS by 17% as we now factor in DKK 300m in buybacks in total during 2022-23. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value is DKK 163-186 (DKK 201-225 prior to EO dividend distribution of the DKK ~47 per share). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
11/3/2021 6:33:58 AM - BankNordik: Great Faroese DPS splash to continue - ABG - 2024 ROE targeted above 10% with normal loan losses<br>New EO DPS of DKK 26 coming up in 2022 (yield 17%)<br>Trading at a ’22 P/E of 7.8x and 6.5x adj. for EO DPS
11/2/2021 9:58:33 AM - BankNordik: Targeting ROE above 10% in 2024 - ABG - Q3’21 PBLL was 2% above ABGSCe<br>2024 ROE targeted above 10%, EO yield of 18% for 2022<br>We expect the share to trade up today
11/2/2021 9:50:25 AM - BankNordik: Targeting above 10% return of equity in 2024 led by capital optimisation - Nordea - Q3 profit before loan losses was DKK 41m against our estimate of DKK 45m. Net interest income was DKK 66m, up 1% q/q and in line with our estimate. Net commission income came in at DKK 19m, up ~27% y/y and DKK 1m above our estimate. On the negative side, insurance income came in DKK 7m, down DKK ~60% y/y due to higher-than expected claims. We estimated DKK ~11m. Operating costs was DKK 59m, down DKK 3m (4%) q/q but slightly up y/y. We estimated DKK 56m. The CET1 ratio came in at ~26.1%, 1.8 pp below our estimate. On Friday, 15 October, BankNordik adjusted its 2021 net profit guidance to DKK 230-250m (from DKK 190-220m). As so, the Q3 2021 net profit result of DKK 43m implies a Q4 net profit of DKK ~45m for the bank to reach the new guidance midpoint. We currently estimate DKK 35m, which leaves our Q4 estimates at the lower end of the guidance range. With the Q3 2021 results, BankNordik has announced new financial targets for 2024: 1) Return of equity of "more than 10%" (previously 8%). 2) cost/income “below 55%” (previously ~55%. 3) CET1 ratio of “below 20%” (previously ~23%). The new targets are based on the current interest environment and a normalised loan loss ratio of 40 bp. Also, BankNordik now expects to distribute all of the remaining DKK 250m in EO dividends from the divestment of the Danish activities in 2022 (previously split between 2022 and 2023).
10/18/2021 6:01:41 AM - BankNordik: Guidance upgrade shows signs of quality - Nordea - On Friday, 15 October, BankNordik upgraded its net profit guidance to DKK 230-250m (from DKK 190-220m), with asset quality being a key profit driver. Operating profit also came in strong in Q3 2021, despite high insurance claims, according to BankNordik. The bank does not provide much detail but we believe part of the operational improvement is due to the bank's renewed focus on profitability, which seems to be materialising faster and to a greater extent than previously expected. We lift 2021E-23E commission income by 1-6% but lower 2021E net insurance by DKK ~4m (8%). In total, we raise 2021E adjusted EPS by 14% as we now expect loan loss reversals of DKK 20m for H2 2021. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 201-225 (192-215). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
10/18/2021 5:58:31 AM - BankNordik: Upgrading 2021 net profit guidance - ABG - 2021 net profit guidance up to DKK 230-250m<br>Net loan loss reversals H2’21 higher than we expected<br>We expect a positive share price reaction
10/15/2021 1:27:09 PM - BankNordik: Improved targets and guidance upgrade ahead - ABG - Insurance income a drag in an otherwise strong Q3<br>Guidance upgrade is likely, EO DPS next Friday (EGM)<br>Trading at a 22e P/E of 9x and 6x adj. for ’21 DPS
10/15/2021 1:21:23 PM - BankNordik: Another guidance upgrade - Nordea - BankNordik has this afternoon upgraded its 2021 net profit guidance to DKK 230-250m (previously DKK 190-220m). We estimate DKK 218m. The guidance upgrade is mainly led by lower loan losses than expected. Furthermore, Q3 2021 operating profit has also been strong, despite higher-than-expected insurance claims according to BankNordik. We have previously suggested that the increased focus on its core business following the sale of its Danish activities could lead to increased profitability. This seems to materialise earlier and to a greater extent than we expected. We hence find it likely that 2022-23 EPS consensus estimates will come slightly up following the guidance upgrade. Our Gordon growth model-based fair value range is DKK 192-215 per share.
10/1/2021 6:35:16 AM - BankNordik: High capital repatriation but we had hoped for buybacks - Nordea - Today, 30 September, BankNordik announced the agenda for its EGM regarding the DKK 700m capital distribution following the sale of its Danish activities to Spar Nord. In short, the Board of Directors proposed an EO dividend pay-out of DKK 46.8 per share, corresponding to a ~30% yield, which makes up the first DKK 450m tranche of the total capital distribution. BankNordik has previously flagged that they were considering distributing part of the capital by way of a share buyback, yet this was not the case. As discussed in our September 16 flash, we would have preferred to see BankNordik distribute the entire excess capital through buybacks in order to avoid the Faroese withholding tax of 15% on non-Faroese investors. We hence find today’s announcement somewhat disappointing. A 100% share buyback would have implied a post-tax gain of DKK ~7 (4%) per share compared to the “only” dividend scenario. The remainin g DKK 250m is set to be distributed in DKK 125m tranches between 2022-23, and the way of capital distribution remains undecided. BankNordik trades at a 2023E P/E of 11.7x but adjusted for the DKK 46.8 per share dividend it trades at 8.3x.
9/23/2021 6:00:27 AM - BankNordik: ABGSC’s DK small/mid-cap seminar feedback - ABG - Still planning for DKK 700m EO distributions ’21-‘23<br>Financial targets to be revised on Q3’21<br>Trading at a 22e P/E of 8.2x and 5.2x adj. for ’21e DPS
9/16/2021 12:35:48 PM - BankNordik: More clarity on the EO dividends of DKK 700m later this month - Nordea - BankNordik is set to distribute DKK 450m (DKK ~47 per share) in Q4 following the sale of its Danish activities to Spar Nord and DKK 700m in total between 2021-23.
8/10/2021 5:39:30 AM - BankNordik - Large EO distribution just around the corner - ABG - New initiatives to drive ‘23e RONAV above 10%<br>EO distribution deducted, we expect DKK 47 EO DPS<br>Trading at a 22e P/E of 8.5x and 5.5x adj. for ‘21e DPS
8/5/2021 9:29:09 AM - BankNordik: Core business on track - Nordea - BankNordik's Q2 2021 profit before loan losses was DKK 47m, DKK 3m (7%) above our estimate, and it reported better-than-expected lending growth in the Faroes (1%) and Greenland (3%). Together with improving deposit margins, this supported net interest income, which came in DKK 3m (5%) ahead of our estimate. Earnings initiatives and process optimisation should continue to boost profitability – the bank has identified initiatives that could lift profits by DKK 20-25m annually for the coming years. The planned dividend and/or share buyback programme of DKK 450m was approved by the Danish FSA on 21 July 2021. Ahead of the EO general meeting on this topic, which will be held no later than October 2021, BankNordik will propose a split between dividends and share buybacks. We raise 2021E-23E adjusted EPS by 1-2%. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 192-215 (188-211). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
7/20/2021 8:34:44 AM - BankNordik: Guidance upgrade ahead of Q2 2021 - Nordea - On 19 July, BankNordik raised and also narrowed its 2021 net profit guidance range from DKK 150-200m to DKK 190-220m. Our estimate was DKK 184m. According to the bank, the upgrade was mainly triggered by lower-than-expected impairments along with operating profit being slightly higher than expected in H1. We hence lift our 2021E adjusted EPS by 13%, with changes to expected loan losses constituting more than 90% of the adjustment. The rest is due to a small positive adjustment to commission income. On our new estimate, we are close to the guidance midpoint. We also raise 2022E-23E adjusted EPS by 1%. BankNordik is still trading a discount ~30% below its Danish peers. Our new Gordon Growth-based fair value range is DKK 188-211 (187-210). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
7/19/2021 9:27:25 AM - BankNordik: upgrades and narrows 2021 net profit guidance range ~17% - Nordea - This morning, BankNordik has upgraded its 2021 net profit guidance range to DKK 190-220m (previously DKK 150-200m). We estimate DKK 184m. According to the bank, the upgrade is mainly triggered by lower-than-expected impairments along with operating profit being slightly higher than expected. The financial guidance includes one-offs of DKK 90m, which are primarily related to revenue from the sale of the Danish activities to Spar Nord. We expect to make positive EPS adj. revisions for 2021E around 10-15%, which is driven by positive revisions to impairment charges. We also expect to see minor positive revisions for 2022E-23E earnings.
7/13/2021 5:38:27 AM - BankNordik: Back to core - Nordea - With the completed sale of the Danish activities to Spar Nord, we expect BankNordik to again focus on cost-efficiency measures and retaining strong positions in core markets with high profitability. Looking at H2 2021, we see a number of potential income drivers, such as revisions of deposit margins and continuing growth in fee and commission income – especially on mortgage and asset management. Hence, we lift 2021E-23E commission income by 2%, while we also trim 2021E-23E costs by 1-2%. We hence raise 2021E-23E adjusted EPS by 4-5%. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 187-210 (179-202). Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
7/9/2021 6:50:37 AM - BankNordik: First EO distribution will likely come as DPS - ABG - Q2 to show strong improvements in PBLL y-o-y<br>We now expect EO DPS of DKK 47 alongside Q2<br>Trading at a 22e P/E of 9.5x and 6.2x adj. for ’21e DPS
6/22/2021 4:03:06 PM - BankNordik: One-off customer compensation but guidance maintained - Nordea - BankNordik has announced that it will compensate 1,607 of its clients, because the bank mistakenly has been underinvested in Danish equities relative to clients’ investment agreements. This has led to a return shortfall among those clients. BankNordik will hence compensate the clients accordingly with a total amount of DKK 14.5m within the coming weeks. BankNordik states that this will not lead a change in its 2021 net profit guidance of DKK 150-200m. We estimate a DKK 190m net profit for 2021E excluding the DKK 14.5m compensation.
4/29/2021 5:44:55 AM - BankNordik: Solid start to the year - Nordea - Q1 2021 operating profit came in at DKK 35m, on a par with our estimate. Total income was slightly ahead of our expectation, costs were in line, and loan losses were DKK 1m above. Lending growth was, however, a little subdued and lending ended up ~2% below our estimate. We thus lower 2021E-23E net interest income by 2%, although this is offset by small positive revisions to the other income items. We leave our 2022E-23E net profit roughly unchanged. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 179-202 (189-207) per share. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
4/28/2021 12:14:27 PM - BankNordik: Q1 2021 results broadly in line with our expectations - Nordea - Q1 2021 profit before loan losses came in at DKK 38m, which was DKK 2m (5%) ahead of our estimate. Other income was DKK 3m above our estimate, offsetting the DKK 1m (2%) miss on net interest income. BankNordik reiterated its 2021 net profit guidance of DKK 150-200m. We estimate DKK 200m. Furthermore, BankNordik repeated its intention to distribute DKK 450m (DKK ~47 per share) in extra-ordinary dividends during 2021 and DKK 250m (DKK ~26 per share) in 2022/23, following the sale of its Danish activities
4/23/2021 5:53:06 AM - BankNordik: All focus on upcoming dividend payment - Nordea - BankNordik sold its Danish business to Spar Nord on 1 February, and has guided that it will distribute DKK 700m in special dividends in 2021-23. The first payment of DKK 450m (~30% of market cap) will be distributed during 2021E.
2/26/2021 9:12:21 AM - BankNordik: Strategic initiatives are starting to pay off - Nordea - The Q4 2020 results are more proof that the strategic initiatives BankNordik has taken over past 12-18 months are working. Total income was ~7% ahead of our estimate and grew ~2% y/y, while costs were ~6% lower than our estimate and down ~7% y/y. BankNordik expects to pay extraordinary dividends of DKK 450m in 2021 and DKK 125m in both 2022 and 2023, following the divestment of its Danish business. This corresponds to DKK 73 per share. BankNordik expects 2021 net profit of DKK 150-200m. As expected, this looks a bit cautious to us, and we estimate 2021 net profit of DKK 200m. We lift 2021E-22E adjusted EPS by 1-5%. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 186-212 (208-234), as we had previously estimated slightly higher and quicker shareholder distribution on the back of the divestment of the Danish activities.
2/25/2021 8:47:01 AM - BankNordik: Q4 2020 first impression, DKK 73 per share in dividends from the sale of DK - Nordea - Q4 2020 net profit came in at DKK 43m, which was DKK 8m (24%) ahead of our estimate. The main positive deviation was loan loss reversals of DKK 10m, which was 20m better than our estimate. On the negative side, profits from discontinued operation (the Danish activities) ended DKK 23m below our estimate. BankNordik guides for 2021 net profit of DKK 150-200m. We estimate DKK 207m. BankNordik proses a 2020 DPS of DKK 5. We had estimated DKK 4.8. Furthermore, the bank intends to distribute additionally DKK 450m during 2021 related to the sale of the Danish activities (DKK 50m above our estimate), as well as additionally DKK 250m during 2022 and 2023. We had expected additionally DKK 375m in 2022. The total distribution solely from the sale of the Danish activities hence corresponds to DKK 73 per share (~45% of closing share price yesterday). BankNordik also revises its financial targets: 1) CET-1 ratio of 23%. We estimate a 2022 CET 1 ratio of 23.3%. 2) Return on equity of 8%. We estimate a 2022 ROE of 6.4%. 3) Payout ratio of 50% (previously 20-40%). We estimate a 2022 pay-out ratio of ~75%.
2/23/2021 6:34:41 PM - BankNordik: Sale of Danish activities takes centre stage - Nordea - We expect the sale of BankNordik's Danish activities to be a key focus area in connection with its 2020 results. We estimate that BankNordik will return around 70% of its current market cap to its shareholders over the next two years. As the bank will be solely focussed on its activities in the Faroe Islands and Greenland, we believe that this could lead to improved underlying profitability. In this report, we move the Danish activities into discontinued operations. We leave net profit unchanged for 2020E and 2022E, but lower our forecast by 9% for 2021 due to the earlier-than-expected completion of the sale. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 208-234 (200-240).
8/11/2020 7:52:19 AM - BankNordik: Good cost savings, while income remains soft - Nordea - Costs came in 7% below our estimate in Q2 2020, and hence costs were once again a positive surprise. This was mainly driven by lower staff costs and other expenses. Total income remained under pressure in this quarter with a 3% miss, as both fee income and other income disappointed.
4/30/2020 9:11:18 PM - BankNordik: The underlying business improves – Nordea - BankNordik: The underlying business improves – Nordea